Florida v. LSU

 by Arnaldo

Les Miles and the Louisiana State University have been the biggest thorn on the Gators' side for quite some time.  In recent years, the rivalry hasn't been the deepest-seeded but has carried some of the larger implications.  For three straight years, the winner of this game went on to win the National Championship, and almost always becomes a dominant contender in the SEC.  LSU continues to be one of my favorite rivalries to watch, and the reason is because it's not one full of hatred, but rather respect.  Gators fans don't hate LSU, they just think they smell like corn dogs.  No one knows why.  I've always thought of LSU as Florida's Bizzaro school.

Probably college football's most intimidating live
mascot, Mike the Tiger.

Besides having similar uniforms in a different set of complimentary colors, competing with us to see who can pop out more, the Tigers seem to have their own, just as great, set of unique traditions, from wearing white at home, to somehow scheduling all their home games at night.  The traditions we share are having probably the two loudest home stadiums in the nation, and a rich tradition of winning.  Most importantly, this match-up is both teams first real SEC test each year, which is why this game is often the most important of the season.


The Match-Up


The LSU Tigers are not the 4th best team in the country.  It's that simple.  Anyone with eyes can see that.  The reason they're ranked as such is because they started at No. 3 and haven't lost a game.  We learn a lot about teams in the first few weeks that no preseason stat could show, but each ranking is based off of the previous one, all the way back to the preseason rank, which is really just a guess.  So when the National Championship runner-ups bring back most starters and replace the NFL-ers and seniors with huge underclassmen talent, the preseason pollsters have no choice but to put them in the top five.  No games have been played, why not?  Today, however, we know much more about the "No. 4" LSU Tigers, and all signs point to an upset in Gainesville.

First and foremost, LSU does not look good.  They've only been proficient at shooting themselves in the foot.  In their last two games they've accumulated 19 penalties for 149 yards and have won their last two games by only an average margin of 9 points.  While that's still two scores, they were expected to win each game by at least three or more touchdowns against LSU and FCS Towson.

"Was it because of all the weed?"

Last Couple Weeks - Bye weeks are always beneficial.  It gives the team an extra week to study film, build game plans, and practice accordingly.  Most importantly however, it lets a team get healthy.  These two teams are having very different previous weeks.   The Gators are enjoying their bye and getting healthy.  Jelani Jenkins, Dominique Easley, and Trey Burton are all expected to play.  Meanwhile in Baton Rouge, LSU will not dress linebacker Tahj Jones for academic issues, left tackle, Chris Faulk (their best O-lineman), who is out for the season from a knee injury, running back Alfred Blue, from a knee injury, and fullback, J.C. Copeland, also with a knee injury.  This just adds on to the preseason loss of Heisman hopeful, Tyrann Mathieu, for "breaking the rules."  While the Gators played a very easy game against Kentucky two weeks ago and rested last Saturday, the Tigers struggled against Auburn (12-10) and then still couldn't find the right chemistry against FCS Towson (38-22).  We're talking Auburn, who doesn't hit the top 50 in any statistical category, and is scoring an average of 17.5 points a game; the SEC team who's only victory has been against Louisiana-Monroe in overtime.  And then there's Towson, an FCS team who was paid graciously to come to Death Valley and take a beating.  They put up 22 points on the heavily-touted LSU defense.  This all translates into momentum, the greatest intangible in football, and the Gators have all of it right now.

Florida Consistency - Sadly, as I've previously mentioned, the Gators are lacking consistency and fast starts.  Its seems that we're hearing "Orange and Blue" being played mostly in the second halves of games, and penalty whistles in the first.  Even in the blowout against Kentucky, Florida couldn't find the end zone until the second quarter.  As many negative stats as I've mentioned for the LSU defense, they're no joke.  They're made of some of the most skilled defensive players in college football who have just not found a rhythm quite yet.  They have the ability to turn it around at any point in the season.  The Gators need to exploit their mishaps early in the game and score, to ensure an Auburn/Towson defensive performance. 

Battle of the Trenches and Rushing the Passer - The battle of the trenches is going to be one of the more deciding match-ups, especially the Gators' offensive line versus the Tigers' defensive front.  It's a front that has allowed an average of 83 rush yards per game and are exceptionally skilled at rushing the passer.  Muschamp has been vocal about how focused he is on their defensive front. "That front right there is impressive,'' he said. "Whether it's Mingo, Edwards, Johnson, Downs, Logan, Ferguson, Montgomery, it don’t matter. They all can run. They can rush the passer. They play with great motors. You’ve to maintain blocks versus these guys. They don’t stay blocked long."  This will put a lot of pressure on Jeff Driskel to move around, in and out of the pocket.  With little time allowed by the LSU line, he'll have to showcase his mobility now more than ever, which, let's not forget, is one of the top reasons we recruited him.

On the other side of the ball, the Gators defensive line needs to improve rushing the passer.  They've only recorded 5 sacks, tying for last place in the SEC, but with the return of Dominique Easley and the soft spot left from Chris Faulk's left tackle position, the stage is set for a possible emergence of defensive pressure from our front four to shaky LSU quarterback Zack Mettenberger.  Brought in as a junior college transfer to fix what Jarret Lee/Jordan Jefferson left behind, Mettenberger hasn't looked much better.  He ranks eighth in the SEC in yards per game, seventh in completion percentage, and ninth in touchdown passes.  Not to mention, he's been sacked eleven times and has fumbled the ball three times, losing all three.  I think Mettenberger handles pressure worse than Tennessee's Tyler Bray, and we all remember how malleable he became in the fourth quarter.  While LSU has a much tougher offensive line protecting him, look for Florida to try similar tactics to remove the passing game from the LSU scheme.


The Mad Hatter - The Tigers haven't beaten the Gators, at least since 2005, without using some trickeration.  Taking risks is what the Mad Hatter is known for.  Two seasons ago, he revived the over-the-head fake field goal that stole him a National Championship in '07.  Last season, punter, Brad Wing, ran a fake punt in for a touchdown, before being called for a taunting penalty.  Whether it's a deliberate trick play, or just a unexpected play call, Will Muschamp will do his best to expect the unexpected.  After all, against the Hat, that's really all you can do.


 Arnaldo's prediction:

Florida wins 23 - 19

BCS National Championship: Louisiana State University v. University of Alabama

by Arnaldo

It's the "Rematch" of the "Game of the Century"!  What more could you want out of a National Championship?

Funny to ask since a large minority of pundits and fans would rather see Les Miles' old team, Oklahoma State, try their best against his new team, LSU, but that's behind us so let's focus on the match-up at hand: Nick Saban's old team, LSU, against his new team, Alabama (see what I did there?).  We haven't seen a rematch in the title game since 1996 when Florida beat Florida State, who had previously lost to FSU at the end of the regular season.  That game should inspire hope, in the days before the big game, that we should see the best game college football has to offer, and that anything can happen.  As for the coaches, there's plenty of talent on both sides.  Nick Saban has won two titles with LSU and Alabama, and Les Miles was here four years ago with LSU.

"Umm . . . Awkward?"

Round I: FIGHT!


So how should this game play out?  Well luckily we already saw these teams duke it out.  First of all, let me just say, that game was not boring.  I mean, you may have been bored watching it, but there's nothing boring about a stalemate, the culmination of solid, mistake-free, perfectly coached football.  For most teams, there's a looseness about calling and executing plays when a team usually has a go-to play with a high rate of success.  This wasn't that.  This was 60 minutes of high tension and insurmountable anxiety.  Neither coach could call the wrong play; neither group of players could make a single mistake, the other team would capitalize.  When you have two teams with great offenses but phenomenal defenses, this is the type of game you're gonna see.


Round II:  FIGHT!

For those of you who did think the first match up was boring, you should be pleasantly surprised with this National Championship game.  There should be more scoring this time.  These teams have an advantage most college football teams never have: extensive experience against each other.  Watching film on your opponent's last match up is one thing; having actual experience is a whole 'nother game.  These coaches have footage on how exactly each player should match up against their assignment.  They don't have to estimate how to give their offensive/defensive line the edge, they don't have to look at 40-times to match up receivers on defensive backs.  They were already there.  Unlike the NFL, college teams very rarely play each other more than once, and players are constantly moving around; having actual field time against the opponent is a Christmas gift neither Nick Saban nor Les Miles will take for granted.  This should translate to slightly more success on offense for both teams.  Look at the NFL where teams have to play their three divisional rivals twice per season.  Nine out of ten times, the second game will be higher scoring than the first.  Each team will be more confident on the success of their plays and will be a bit more liberal with their play-calling.  Expect to see a few more long passes and at least two more touchdowns than before.

On the opposite side of the coin, each coaching staff knows what the other team is studying, and know what didn't work the first time around.  As a result, expect plays, coverages, and especially blitzes you've never seen from each team before.


Keys to Victory


For LSU, it's one word: consistency.  Les Miles prides himself on consistency, but something is getting lost in translation.  LSU is undefeated because of three things: near-perfect defense, near-perfect special teams, and a stellar offensive line, but LSU is not a perfect team.  There is a severe lack of consistency in the offense, namely the skill positions.  They're quick fix has been their depth.  Two quarterbacks (though expect much more, if not all Jordan Jefferson over Jarret Lee), five runningbacks, constantly in rotation.  When one guy drops the ball (both literally and metaphorically) Miles just sends in his replacement.  It's like covering holes with duct tape; it's not a real fix.

CB Tyrann Mathieu

As an offense, LSU is hot and cold.  They've gotten away with being so inconsistent because the defense gives them infinite opportunities and their special teams gives them favorable field position, or touchdown returns.  The problem is that eventually, and against the top defense in all major categories in Alabama, all cylinders have to click, or the entire game will break apart.  They beat Alabama the first time because they were hot.  Against Georgia, they were cold.  The first half of the SEC Championship game saw an LSU offense that could produce zero first downs and -2 yards.  Now, Georgia's defense is good, but Alabama's is the best.  A performance like that will not be forgiven next Monday and will result in a steady field position battle that Alabama can easily win.  Expect a good battle in the trenches between LSU's offensive line and Bama's defensive front.  LSU likes to run the ball a lot whether it's from the I to Singleback and a good amount of spread option.  Either way, a strong (and always consistent) offensive line and five effective and healthy running backs will deliver a solid run game.  If LSU wins, however, the difference maker will be special teams.  With one of the best punters in the nation and definitely the best punt returner in the nation (Tyrann Mathieu), LSU's special teams has the ability to inch their team closer to the endzone on each possession transition.  Make no mistake, the field position battle will be THE most important in this game.


For Alabama, it all goes back to Nick Saban.  Love him or hate him, there's no smarter coach in football, and with him comes a big strategic advantage: his team didn't have to play on championship week and LSU's offensive holes were severely exposed against Georgia's defense in the first half.  You can bet Nick was licking his lips watching the golden footage while his team gets an extra week to rest.  Alabama needs to limit Jordan Jefferson to either the pass or run game.  Alabama's defense is first in every major category so it should be pretty easy to stop the weak passer.  With LSU focusing on their powerful run game, they'll need to use their outside option game to widen the box to set up good interior runs.  Alabama's only weakness is outside linebacker speed and defending the option (they allowed 307 run yards against the triple-option FCS Georgia Southern).  In their last meeting, LSU was very capable of moving the ball on outside speed options.  Look for Saban to keep his linebackers a little more spread out and prepared for outside options.  There may also be less use of a true Buck (hybrid linebacker/defensive end).  Either way, Saban will be out to turn LSU into a one-dimensional offense.  One-dimensional teams do not win against Nick Saban.

RB Trent Richardson

On offense, expect a lot, a lot, of Trent Richardson.  LSU may have a better offensive line, but not by much, and they don't have a Trent Richardson.  My personal pick for the Heisman, he's more than a runningback.  He's an all around athlete.  He's their leading rusher, obviously, with 1583 yards, but is also curiously Alabama's second highest receiver with 327 yards.  That's not a lot for a receiver, but having a do-it-all player on the field opens up all sorts of possibilities.  Throwing good screens, checkdowns, and underneath patterns to a talented runningback is like running a spread offense.  It'll force a defense to spread out into looser zones, and make bigger passing lanes for Marquis Maze, and also even more running lanes for Trent Richardson.  As I mentioned, special teams will play a huge part of this game and Alabama will be prepared.  They don't have the same return game as LSU, but they will be well prepared for Tyrann Mathieu and company.  On punts, look for Alabama to sacrifice punt blockers to suffocate Mathieu and force him to fair catch.

Arnaldo's prediction:

Alabama beats LSU 20-10