by Arnaldo
Heismanology: the study behind the assessment of players and their skills, and their likelihood of being awarded the Heisman Trophy.
The
Heisman Memorial Trophy Award is the single most coveted award in
sports. Only 56 living persons can call themselves Heisman Trophy
winners. That title will accompany their names for as long as they
live, and will be uttered just about every time they are mentioned.
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| How do you not trust this face? |
The Heisman Trophy is presented to the
most outstanding
college football player. That term is important because it's supposed
to mean the "pursuit of excellence with integrity", which its recipients
are expected to represent. 2005 Heisman recipient Reggie Bush returned
his trophy when allegations of NCAA violations arose, but interestingly
enough, O.J. Simpson still has his. So when looking at Heisman
candidates, unlike other awards where stats are read and trophies are
appropriately awarded, the Heisman Trophy requires its voters to take
several different factors into consideration.
Who is considered?
Who gets chosen to compete for the Heisman is a delicate subject open to much debate. It's why the term
Heismanology
exists. How do we compare a quarterback to a running back? Where to
defensive backs fit it? And what if there's a REALLY good offensive
lineman? Shouldn't he be able to receive the award?
All
legitimate questions. Unfortunately, there are no conversion factors
for passing touchdowns to rushing yards or tackles for loss made.
Instead, voters have to rate a player in his position and compare him to
other players in theirs. But at least players within the same position
are easy to compare, right? Give it to the quarterback with the most
passing yards. Done... Still not that easy. There are other factors
which need to be considered. How did that player earn those statistics,
and against what competition? Conferences and strengths of schedule
are all factors which are heavily considered. Another significant
intangible is referred to as "Heisman moments". Voters and fans like to
see candidates have a big plays around the end of the season, despite
their progress throughout the entire year. This is purely political and
subjective, but unfortunately it has a huge influence on voters. Minor
factors include players' activities off the field, and how they
influence their team's moral and performance.
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Cast on your non-throwing
arm? How original. |
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| Tim Tebow: trend setter. |
For example, in 2008, the top two candidates were Sam
Bradford and Tim Tebow. Tebow had just won the award the previous year
and had to compete against himself as well as Bradford, but team
circumstances prevented Tebow from achieving the same stats. The Gators
were winning games by very comfortable margins and sitting Tebow early
in the 4th quarter (sometimes in the 3rd) and had more playmakers to
spread the wealth, so his stats were naturally less impressive, though
Tebow was widely regarded as much improved from '07. Oklahoma had a
very similar season winning the same number of games by giant margins,
but while Tebow was sitting on the bench, Bradford was still throwing
touchdowns late into games. Voters were forced to choose between who
they believe was more skilled, or who was having a more outstanding
season.
How are they voted on?
The
Heisman recipient is chosen by mostly football journalist, because they
are "informed, competent, and impartial." 145 media voters are chosen
from each of six regions for a total of 870 media votes. All living
Heisman winners also get a vote, totaling 56 (Reggie Bush is ineligible,
but somehow O.J. is, though it's not certain if he's allowed to vote
while imprisoned). One last vote is given to a fan poll on ESPN.com.
Voters
are given access to an online ballot where they enter their top three
candidates in order. Each first place votes receives 3 points, second
place votes get 2 points, and third places votes receive 1 point. The
candidate with the most points is awarded the Heisman. This brings up
another BCS-style controversy. Under this system, a candidate could
receive the most first place votes but not win the Heisman, as long as
another candidate accumulates enough second and third place votes. Back
to 2008; Tim Tebow had the most first place votes, but Sam Bradford won
the trophy with a flood of second place votes. Think this through:
most people felt Sam Bradford was the second most outstanding player in
college football and he won the Heisman.
2011 candidates
Andrew Luck #12 - Quarterback, Stanford
Trent Richardson #3 - Running back, Alabama
Robert Griffin III #10 - Quarterback, Baylor
Montee Ball #28 - Running back, Wisconsin
Tyrann Mathieu #7 - Cornerback, LSU
Andrew Luck
has be revered as the most complete and NFL-ready quarterback. Not
only is he ready to dominate in the NFL, he was ready last year.
Despite being the Heisman runner-up to Cam Newton, it was unquestionable
that Luck would be chosen No. 1 over all in the 2011 NFL Draft.
Instead Luck decided to stay at Standford for another year, and he's
still eligible for yet another. Since that time, he's been the clear
favorite to win the 2011 Heisman and the No. 1 pick all over again.
Luck had a flawless season up until Stanford's loss to Oregon where he
threw two interception, the most in any game this season. Since the
loss, Luck never again reached the 70%-85% completion rating that earned
him such a lofty lead early on, and interceptions became a weekly
occurrence. He lacked any definite late-season "Heisman moments" which
will hurt his stock. He finished the regular season with 3,170 yards,
35 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. Voters will be torn with Luck.
They will recognize his remarkable ability as second to none, but must
also admit that the Stanford quarterback's year was not
outstanding.
Trent Richardson is
your prototypical freight train running back. When he's not plowing
over linebackers, he's juking them, stiff-arming corners, and out
running safeties; there's little Trent Richardson can't do. His biggest
claim is the list of defenses he did so against. There's no longer any
debate that the SEC houses the best defenses in amateur football.
Draft experts point at almost the entire LSU and Alabama defensive
starters as draftable, and not just that, but all in the first three
rounds. And it was against the nation's best defenses that he racked up
such staggering numbers. 125 rushing yards and 85 receiving yards
against Arkansas, 181 rushing yards for 2 touchdowns and 27 receiving
yards against Florida. A definitive "Heisman moment" in the always
difficult Iron Bowl against Auburn for 203 rushing yards with a
spectacular 57 yard run. And probably the most telling statistic is
what he accomplished in the loss against LSU and the unquestionably best
defense in the nation: 89 rushing yards and another 80 receiving in
that "boring" game of the century. His season all purpose totals are
1,910 yards for 23 touchdowns. These factors combined tell me Trent
Richardson will either place second overall or bring Tuscaloosa its
second Heisman Trophy in the last three years (also ever).
Robert Griffin III
would've fallen under "dark horse" candidate in the beginning of the
season, and that might be an overstatement. As usual, not much was
expected from the Baylor Bears as preseason polls had them unranked and
receiving no votes (putting them at best No. 51), but a stunning
performance in the season opener against No. 14 TCU had the nation
wondering where this prodigy with the fancy name had been its whole
life, and the stellar throwing just kept coming. His completion ratings
vary from high 60s to low 90s, which is amazing even at practice. What
might hurt his resume are his team's losses. A loss makes every player
on the field look bad, and it always reflects on the Heisman ballot,
even though the Heisman is an individual award. What might remedy this
are his stats on his worst lost. Against an obviously very talented
Oklahoma State, he may have thrown two interceptions, but still managed
to rack up 425 yards in the air, and put up 24 points. Numbers like
those usually never result in an 'L'. His "Heisman moment"? Well he
seems to be constantly having one. From strong performances under
difficult circumstances to the sheer number of yardage in a season,
Robert Griffin III lives the "Heisman moment". His end of regular
season stats read 3,998 passing yards, 36 touchdowns, and only 6
interceptions. He's tied in my mind for the trophy with Trent
Richardson.
Montee Ball
has been a staple in Wisconsin football for the last three years, so
unlike RG3, he's no secret. What shines about Ball is his new-found
athleticism. He lost 28 pounds over the off season to add speed and
more importantly, elusiveness. He's been cutting out of defenders'
grasps and finding the endzone time and time again. His other golden
ticket lies in his number touchdowns. He has 38 of them (all purpose).
To give you an idea, Trent Richardson has 23. Quite frankly, that
number alone got him in the Heisman debate. What will deter voters is
Wisconsin's use of Montee Ball. He has a similar amount of rushing
yards to Trent Richardson but 12 more rushing touchdowns. When you look
at Wisconsin's stats, Ball has more touchdowns than the team has
passing touchdowns. He has more than four times the touchdowns as their
leading receiver Nick Toon. Wisconsin is a one-trick pony and everyone
knows it. Whether they only give the ball to Ball in the redzone to
pad stats or to win games is the coach's business, but with such a heavy
touchdown to total yardage ratio, voters will consider these stats
skewed. Combine that with the argument that the level of defenses he's
played against don't match those of the SEC, and things don't look too
hopeful for Montee Ball. He will, however, have a significant effect on
the vote. As a running back with 38 touchdowns, voters will be split
from Trent Richardson's campaign. Montee ball has a total of 2,014
yards for the 38 touchdowns.
Tyrann Mathieu
is the "Honey Badger". There's little debate that LSU fields the
nation's best defense, and there's no debate that Mathieu is LSU's best
defender. He covers the whole field, tracks down the ball, and most
importantly, makes game changing plays on special teams. He's your
do-it-all defensive back, a security blanket for any head coach. As a
defensive back, he's gonna be hard to compare to other offensive
candidates, and as a cornerback, it's gonna be even harder. Only one
defensive back has ever won the Heisman Trophy, and even he lined up at
wide receiver occasionally. Offensive plays get the ball and are
expected to do something with it. Defensive players are supposed to
cover their man, and if they do it well enough, nothing will happen.
That man won't be passed the ball, and as a corner, a running back has
to escape some closer defenders before reaching him. This is why
Mathieu has a thin stat sheet; average tackles, average sacks, even
average interceptions (2), because Tyrann Mathieu plays excellent
coverage. One defensive stat that does stick out is forced fumbles; he
has five of them, and scooped two of those up for touchdowns. What's
most exceptional about Mathieu is his punt return ability. Teams who've
played LSU have had to punt a lot, and when they do, Honey Badger makes
them pay. He averages 16.15 yards per return (when not calling a fair
catch) and has returned four of them for touchdowns, one of which was
returned at the 8 yard line. Voters will be conflicted to put Mathieu
any higher than 4th for two reasons. First, it's too hard to compare
defensive backs against the skill positions. If Mathieu had more sacks
or more interceptions, he might have made more waves in the poll, and
second, Mathieu was suspended for a game for breaking LSU's drug policy,
and is considered a bit of a "dirty" player. As mentioned earlier,
voters like to see off the field attitudes that reflect their athletic
performances. I have Mathieu around 4th place, but Honey Badger don't
give a . . .
Arnaldo's Heisman ballot:
Trent Richardson
Robert Griffin III
Andrew Luck
Tyrann Mathieu
Montee Ball
Arnaldo's Heisman prediction:
Robert Griffin III
Trent Richardson
Andrew Luck
Montee Ball
Tyrann Mathieu
For
those of you who did think the first match up was boring, you should be
pleasantly surprised with this National Championship game. There
should be more scoring this time. These teams have an advantage most
college football teams never have: extensive experience against each
other. Watching film on your opponent's last match up is one thing;
having actual experience is a whole 'nother game. These coaches have
footage on how exactly each player should match up
against their assignment. They don't have to estimate how to give their
offensive/defensive line the edge, they don't have to look at 40-times
to match up receivers on defensive backs. They were already there.
Unlike the NFL, college teams very rarely play each other more than
once, and players are constantly moving around; having actual field time
against the opponent is a Christmas gift neither Nick Saban nor Les
Miles will take for granted. This should translate to slightly more
success on offense for both teams. Look at the NFL where teams have to
play their three divisional rivals twice per season. Nine out of ten
times, the second game will be higher scoring than the first. Each team
will be more confident on the success of their plays and will be a bit
more liberal with their play-calling. Expect to see a few more long
passes and at least two more touchdowns than before.
For LSU,
it's one word: consistency. Les Miles prides himself on consistency,
but something is getting lost in translation. LSU is undefeated because
of three things: near-perfect defense, near-perfect special teams, and a
stellar offensive line, but LSU is not a perfect team. There is a
severe lack of consistency in the offense, namely the skill positions.
They're quick fix has been their depth. Two quarterbacks (though
expect much more, if not all Jordan Jefferson over Jarret Lee), five
runningbacks, constantly in rotation. When one guy drops the ball (both
literally and metaphorically) Miles just sends in his replacement.
It's like covering holes with duct tape; it's not a real fix. 
For Alabama,
it all goes back to Nick Saban. Love him or hate him, there's no
smarter coach in football, and with him comes a big strategic advantage:
his team didn't have to play on championship week and LSU's offensive
holes were severely exposed against Georgia's defense in the first half.
You can bet Nick was licking his lips watching the golden footage
while his team gets an extra week to rest. Alabama needs to limit
Jordan Jefferson to either the pass or run game. Alabama's defense is
first in every major category so it should be pretty easy to stop the
weak passer. With LSU focusing on their powerful run game, they'll need
to use their outside option game to widen the box
to set up good interior runs. Alabama's only weakness is outside
linebacker speed and defending the option (they allowed 307 run yards
against the triple-option FCS Georgia Southern). In their last meeting, LSU was very capable of moving the ball on outside speed options.
Look for Saban to keep his linebackers a little more spread out and
prepared for outside options. There may also be less use of a true Buck
(hybrid linebacker/defensive end). Either way, Saban will be out to
turn LSU into a one-dimensional offense. One-dimensional teams do not
win against Nick Saban. 
