Florida v. Missouri

by Arnaldo

Mistakes were made.  It happens, but these mistakes obviously took quite a toll on Florida's nearly perfect regular season, a feat that's only been accomplished once by the '09 team.  It let out the air from under Gator fans everywhere as they stay in their homes and dorms this weekend in shame; the Mizzou game has not sold out.  I hate losing to Georgia.  I'd rather lose every game and beat Georgia than win every game while losing to Georgia, but it's time to gain some perspective.  The Gators are ranked No. 7 in the BCS after the loss.  The expectations for this season were similar to the last.  Third or fouth in the East was what I kept hearing, another struggle to make a bowl game.  Florida has been the surprise of the college football season and absolutely nothing has been negated. 

Believe it or not, the Gators are still on the inside track to a Sugar Bowl, same as last week.  Had we beaten the Bulldogs, we would have clinched the SEC East and faced a probable Alabama for a probable loss and a Sugar Bowl bid.  As long as Georgia wins out in the SEC (they have 5-3 Ole Miss and 1-7 Auburn remaining) they'll represent the East instead of us in the game where they will most definitely lose to the same probable Alabama.  That leaves Florida as the highest ranked available SEC team for the Sugar Bowl committee to chose.  All we really have to do is beat Florida State, and from what I saw in Jacksonville, it's all in the Gators' hands.

I say this because, I truthfully believe Florida is a better team than Georgia.  I'm not a sore loser, I promise.  The game was uncharacteristic for the Gators from the beginning to end.  Will Muschamp said that the margin of error was very slim for them, considering their schedule.  It took a mistake free game to beat LSU, it took half a dozen mistakes to lose to Georgia.  The Dawgs earned their 17 points (just as I predicted).  They went 1-10 on third downs, had 14 penalties for 132 yards, and three turnovers, which has been very characteristic for them.  The Gators lost this game for themselves.  Six turnovers, for a team that was plus-11 in their turnover margin, and they still won the time of possession battle, and ended the game one very unlucky play from tying.  These stats have victory in a rematch written all over them, but of course, the Gators and the Dawgs won't see each other again.  Instead, the Gators need to focus on the road ahead, which like I said, is still very favorable.  The season is far from over.

Recover.  The past is the past, and the Gators have three weeks of easy match-ups before facing Florida State.  Coming off a loss is never easy, especially a self-inflicted one.  It's time to forget the Cocktail Party, and work on recovery, both physically and psychologically.


The Match-Up

Ball security - It's the obvious subplot here.  The Gators must return to mistake-free form if they're to salvage their season and crawl back into elite status.  Two fumbles in the first three plays against Georgia is not acceptable.  The lack of momentum created from these turnovers was fatal.  Securing the football will come from everyone: Jeff Driskel, obviously, but also the offensive line that continues to not provide him with enough pocket time.  Don't let Mizzou's rough SEC record fool you.  The Tigers lead the nation in forced fumbles with 17.  After last week, that's a terrifying statistic.


Finalizing the playbook - The curse of a run-first offense is predictability.  You sacrifice variety for consistent production.  As the season wears on, play-callers develop tunnel vision and the more creative, less practiced plays, become harder to execute when they're needed.  At this point in the season, it's time to implement the final tweaks in style.  Look for the Gators to try what they tried against Vanderbilt, but only hopefully more successfully: spread the receivers, mix up the calls, and try some deep play-action.


Jeff Driskel and Jordan Reed - These two need pick-me-ups.  Driskel had a hand in the majority of the turnovers last week, while Reed was partially responsible for the game-loser.  As underclassmen, both are too easily influenced and need good performances to get them back on top of their game by Florida State.  Now's the time to get them back into rhythm for the last third of the season.


Defense - As usual, the stellar defense can't let down.  We've gotten where we are because they haven't.  The second best SEC defense in points allowed (fourth in the nation) must rely on their depth this week as Lerente McCray might not see a full game with an aggravated ankle and Leon Orr out with flu-like symptoms.  The trio of true freshmen who have seen plenty of play time and have thoroughly impressed Muschamp, and the Gator Nation for that matter, DE Dante Fowler Jr., LB Antonio Morrison, and DT Jonathan Bullard will be taking bigger roles to improve overall health on defense over the next few weeks.


Replacing Patton - Solomon Patton left the Georgia game with a broken arm and is definitely out for the season (in case you were wondering).  Though he's not used much, he does serve one very important role: the Solomon Patton jet sweep.  It's been the go-to fourth down play this season for good reason, though it had been getting a bit predictable, even Brent Pease admits it.  This play also spreads the defense, or takes advantage of a tightened up defense.  By running Mike Gillislee on the inside so much, defenses start to creep in and load the inside of the box, deep within the hash marks.  The jet sweep gets the ball-carrier out on the edges very quickly, which will spread the defense back out for the following play.  Likely candidates to fill Patton's void are Andre Dubose, who hasn't seen but four touches all year on offense, or Omarius Hines, who doesn't have the speed but makes up for it with strength.


Mizzou talent - Players to watch on the Mizzou squad include QB James Franklin, returner Marcus Murphy, and DT Sheldon Richardson.  Franklin's played about half the season due to injuries, and has only thrown a combined 18 passes in the last three games.  He can be explosive, however, having racked up 3,847 all-purpose yards last year.  Return man Marcus Murphy leads the nation in touchdown returns at four, including one kick-off return against Alabama.  Murphy may be the most talented return specialist the Gators special teams have seen.  Defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson leads the team in tackles (57) and sacks (4).  It's pretty uncommon for interior linemen to lead the team in these categories, which should tell you a couple things: Richardson is fast and can cover the entire line of scrimmage, is great against interior running, and has the strength to penetrate the offensive line for a sack.


Arnaldo's Prediction:

Florida wins 31-10