Tampa Bay v. Atlanta

by John Michael

Playoffs?! You kidding me?

Statement Game. This is it. This is the game the Bucs have been waiting for. After starting 1-3, the Bucs have fought back to 6-4, winning four straight while putting on the best offensive show in franchise history. The Bucs' newfound swagger has caught the eye of even more experts and analysts across the nation, some even using the "p-word" when discussing Tampa Bay's post-season. But despite the recent success, the Bucs have yet to claim that signature win to prove that they truly belong among the top teams in the league this year. This week's game provides that opportunity.

Head coach Steve Martin Mike Smith applauding his Falcon's effort

Into town this week comes the Dirty Birds. The Dixie Chicks. The current number one seed in the NFC, and huge division rivals. The Atlanta Falcons. This is the first meeting of two between these two teams, and a matchup that many in the Bay Area have been looking forward to for weeks. The Matt Ryan-led Atlanta Falcons have clawed their way to an impressive 9-1 record, their only blemish coming against a resurgent New Orleans Saints team. While most point out that the games the Falcons have won were very close, and that they're fortunate to only have one loss, the fact remains that the Falcons have found a way to win those close games. Their record has been well deserved. But these close games can easily spin out of the Falcons' favor in a hurry, which is what the Bucs are aiming for today. A Buccaneers win would be huge not only for the franchise, but for the NFC playoff picture as a whole. The Bucs would stay right in the mix for a wildcard spot, while the Falcons would fall to only having a two game lead over the Bucs with five games (and one against the Bucs) to go. And with the 49ers breathing down the Falcons' necks for that number one spot, anything could happen to the Falcons under pressure.

But all of these possibilities start on the field at Raymond James Stadium today. Should the Bucs lose, the playoffs might be just out of reach. This statement game is as close to must-win game as it gets for Tampa Bay. Here's how they win.


Keys to Victory


Doug Martin. One of the weakest spots of the Atlanta Falcons is their run defense, which ranks 26th in the league allowing 130.5 yards per game. Martin had better be ready to play. The biggest offensive days for the Bucs lately have depended on establishing a strong running game early. Pulling off the upset on the Falcons will be a lot easier if Martin can get rolling early. On paper, Martin looks to have a great day on the ground. On the field? We'll see at 1 PM.

Here they come.

Limit Matt Ryan. Much like the Bucs, the Falcons have been thriving because of their offense. While their running game (28th in the league in rushing yards) leaves much to be desired, and should not be much of a factor against the Bucs' top ranked rushing defense, Atlanta's passing game is ranked fourth in the league. The Bucs' 32nd ranked passing defense may be in for a long day against the tandem of Matt Ryan and his top receivers, Roddy White and Julio Jones. Because of the Falcon's lack of a consistent running game, Ryan will without a doubt be targeting these two deep in the Bucs' secondary early and often. The key is to bend but not break, and create turnovers. Last week, the Falcons were fortunate enough to gain a victory against the Chiefs despite Ryan throwing a career high 5 interceptions. Should the Bucs have similar success in the turnover department, they need to capitalize.

Looking more like 2010 every week.

Josh Freeman. Last week was not one of Josh Freeman's greatest games. Freeman threw for two picks at very inopportune times, and the the Bucs' trailed by 11 with about six minutes left in the game. But this is when Josh Freeman emerged as a leader of this young Buccaneers offense. In the final six minutes, Freeman was almost perfect, throwing the game-tying touchdown and two point conversion in the final seconds, capping it off with a phenomenal strike to Dallas Clark to clinch the road victory in overtime. The Bucs need Freeman to be that leader against the Falcons. Should the Bucs fall behind early, Freeman must put on an even more impressive performance than last week. He must make the right decisions and keep the ball out of the hands of Atlanta defenders, and Matt Ryan off the field. It will be up to Freeman if it comes down to the fourth quarter again, which is where Atlanta thrives.

If the Buccaneers pull out a victory today, it will send shock waves across the NFL. The Bucs will finally prove they belong and are a force to be reckoned with in the NFC South. The Bucs are quietly dangerous, and a game like this will finally get the attention of every team left on their schedule. Atlanta will keep it close as they have with every team this year, but I believe that the Bucs will have what it takes to pull off the upset in the final quarter. Then, the pressure is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from here until the end.

John Michael's prediction:

Tampa Bay wins 27 -24