Tampa Bay v. Carolina

by John Michael

Round Two. The Buccaneers played Carolina in Week One for what was then a surprising 16-10 win. Going into that game, expectations were low for the Buccaneers. The roster was one of the youngest in the league, after coming off a 4-12 season and starting fresh with a new Head Coach under Greg Schiano. All the questions focused on the upcoming season for the Bucs - How would they respond the the new regime put in place by Schiano? Is Josh Freeman really the answer for the Bucs at Quarterback? How would the big free-agent signings play out in Tampa Bay?

It's been tough not typing "Scam Newton" this whole time.

Meanwhile, the Panthers were coming off a year where their offensive power improved dramatically. In 2011, after a 2-14 finish in 2010, the Panthers finished with a 6-10 record behind the number one draft pick Cam Newton. The Panthers had the 7th ranked overall offense behind a powerful 3rd ranked running game under the three-way punch of Newton, Jonathan Dwyer, and DeAngelo Williams. In the last six games, the Panthers went 4-2 - including two wins against the Buccaneers. Needless to say, expectations were high at the start of the season for the 2012 Panthers and Cam Newton's sophomore season.

Fast-forward to Week 11. Going into today's game, the Bucs have one of the league's hottest offenses with Doug Martin's sensational season and Freeman coming into his own. They have won three straight while averaging 35.6 points per game since their bye-week. The last game against the Chargers was probably the most complete game the Bucs played this season, scoring on offense, defense, and (surprise!) special teams. While they have allowed the league worst passing yards per game, the defense has created turnovers in key spots so secure victories late. The Panthers are heading in the opposite direction. The high expectations surrounding Cam Newton heading into the season has translated into only two wins so far. Offensive numbers from last year are down - this year, they are ranked 27th in the league in total yards per game. But don't let the 2-7 record fool you, the Panthers are still a dangerous team. All but two of Carolina's losses were by single digits.


Keys to Victory

Doug E. Fresh. Douginator. Still not as good as Muscle Hamster

Let loose the Douggernaut. Carolina ranks 16th in the league in rush defense, allowing 113 yards per game on the ground. This may be a chance for Doug Martin to shine again. Establishing the run game early on in Carolina will open up the passing game for Josh Freeman later on in the match-up, and take a tremendous amount of time off the clock and away from Cam Newton. Today is shaping up to be another big day for Martin should the Buccaneers depleted Offensive Line hold up against the Carolina's defense.

Keep an eye on Cam. While Cam Newton hasn't been running all over defenses like last year, it doesn't mean that he can't accomplish it this year. The Bucs have the best rushing defense in the league so far, and they did well to contain Newton in Week One. Tampa Bay must contain Newton, forcing him to throw early and make mistakes. If Cam gets rolling early, however, it could be a long day for the Bucs' defense.

Just keep doing your thing, Leonard Johnson.

Turnovers. The Bucs have been playing with fire as of late, allowing large amounts of yards through the air but coming through with key turnovers. At the same time, Josh Freeman has decreased the turnovers on the offensive end. The Bucs need to keep this pace up, because these turnovers are the reason the Bucs have improved to 5-4 this season. Earlier in the season, the inability to create turnovers and finish games is what led to the 1-3 start. Win the turnover battle against Carolina, win the game.

If the Bucs have any desire to make the playoffs, it's games like today that the Bucs have to win. The schedule doesn't get much easier through the rest of the season, with games against the Broncos, Saints, and two against the Falcons coming up. With the Bucs trending up lately, and the under-perfoming of Carolina, I see much of the same for both teams in this match up. The Bucs continue to score points, and Carolina keeps it close until the end.

John Michael's prediction:

Tampa Bay wins 35 - 24