by Arnaldo
Bowl predictions are pointless. You could, and really should, just wait a few weeks until everything plays out and see who goes where. But by that same token, what's the point in preseason rankings, or picking games, or even having any sort of fun? A week ago the BCS was shaken up when the top two teams (Kansas State and Oregon) fell and Notre Dame inched its way to the top spot before its season closer against unranked (and preseason No. 1) Southern California last night, as all of Gainesville, FL and Eugene, OR watched in agony as the Irish skimmed by a slightly confused Lane Kiffin.
So, mostly for fun, Bruce & Albert are here to explain bowl game selection and predict the BCS bowl games. There are actually volumes of little known rules on who can receive and who can't receive and who will receive despite not deserving, BCS bowl bids. In essence there are four BCS bowls taken from four of the oldest bowl games, the Rose Bowl, the Sugar Bowl, the Orange Bowl, and the Fiesta Bowl. As I explained a year ago around this time, each bowl has conference tie-ins it likes to honor for tradition sake.
For example, the Rose Bowl (the original bowl game) set out to create an exhibition for a west coast team and a team from east of the Mississippi. So they invited undefeated (not even scored upon) Michigan to play Stanford. The game was called by mercy at the third quarter when Michigan was up 49-0. The Tournament of Roses was so upset they considered the game a failure and didn't try again for fourteen years. Because of the tie-ins and tradition, but also the need to pit the top two teams together, a fifth game was established in 2006 as the stand-alone National Championship, whose location was rotated through the four BCS sites. The bowls' tie-ins are as follows:
BCS National Championship - No. 1 v. No. 2
Rose Bowl - Pac-12 champion v. Big 10 champion
Sugar Bowl - SEC champion v. At-Large
Orange Bowl - ACC champion v. At-Large
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 champion v. At-Large
The conferences are interesting because six of them are automatic qualifying (AQ) conferences. This is to prevent a successful team from a weak conference from appearing better than a losing (but better) team from a tougher conference, so that the weaker team isn't rewarded for beating bad teams. The six AQ conferences are the ones listed plus the Big East. The Big East really gets a pass from their basketball dominance. The NCAA almost assumes that if the schools have the resources for good basketball, then they should eventually have good football as well, right? The truth of the matter is that the Big East doesn't deserve an AQ spot but as a founding member of the BCS, what can you do? The Big East champion takes one of the three at-large spots and the other two are left for actual at-large teams, a wildcard if you will.
The volumes of rules basically go towards picking these two teams. The most notable of which are the "Notre Dame rule" which allows one independent school (but realistically, only Notre Dame) a BCS spot if it finishes in the top 8, and the "SEC rule" which limits the amount of teams allowed in BCS bowls to two, including one in a national championship. The exception to this rule would be if both teams playing for a national championship were of the same conference and neither were the conference champion, then the conference champion would still go to the Sugar Bowl. That seems like a stretch but isn't at all impossible, especially with today's dominance of the SEC. Imagine for example, that Alabama had lost to Auburn, Georgia had lost to Georgia Tech, and some other teams also lost putting LSU closer to Florida, the winner of the SEC championship would end up below LSU and Florida, who in this hypothetical scenario, would be playing for a title. The BCS would be forced to let that team in the Sugar Bowl, a third SEC team. I take it back, that would be incredibly unlikely. Still, the rule has its largest effect this season with six out of the fourteen SEC schools ranked just in the top 10 (assuming South Carolina will move to No. 10 after the FSU and Clemson losses). Because of this, several teams ranked far below LSU, Alabama/Georgia loser, Texas A&M, and South Carolina will be in BCS games while they're left out.
Now let's look at each AQ conference standings. Division champions are chosen by their conference records, regardless of overall records. The division champions play each other in their conference championship game if their conference has 12 or more schools. If they have fewer, there are no divisions and the team with the best conference record is the champion. Interestingly this year, a large number of division and conference champions are not the highest ranked or the best in their standings due to their overall record or because the actual leader is ineligible. Let's start with the Big East and move our way up.
The Big East suffered a loss last season and is down to just eight schools. Again, twelve is the minimum required to host a conference championship game. So the top team in their own conference standings (not actual standings) will be crowned the champion. The Big East actually hasn't finished conference play but conveniently, the top two teams, Rutgers (9-2, 5-1) and Louisville (9-2, 4-2), play each other this weekend in a de facto conference championship. Though they share the 9-2 overall record, Rutgers leads in the conference with the better conference record. If Louisville wins, however, they will tie at 5-2 and hold the tiebreaker having won a head-to-head game, hence the winner-take-all scenario.
The Atlantic Coastal Conference is broken up into two divisions, Atlantic and Coastal. Florida State (10-2, 7-1) and Clemson (10-2, 7-1) are tied for the lead of the Atlantic, but FSU beat Clemson head-to-head, giving them the tiebreaker. FSU will play the Coastal "champion" Georgia Tech (6-6, 5-3) who is actually third in the Coastal division behind North Carolina and Miami, both of whom are ineligible for conference championships as well as bowl games due to NCAA sanctions. All signs point to the Seminoles wrapping this one up, but a win by Georgia Tech will shake up the BCS, forcing a likely unranked team into the Orange Bowl.
The Big 10 expanded to 12 teams effective last season allowing them to host a conference championship game with their two divisions, Leaders and Legends. Don't call it tacky, they don't like that. Nebraska (10-2, 7-1) is the undisputed leader of the Legends division while in similar fashion to the ACC Coastal, the top two teams in the Leaders division, Ohio State (10-2, 7-1) and Penn State (8-4, 6-2) are ineligible of any postseason play. This thrusts Wisconsin (7-5, 4-4) into the Big 10 championship game. A upset win by the Badgers will force them into the Rose Bowl, also most likely ranked very low, or unranked.
The Big 12 on the other hand has made do with 10 teams for these two seasons, leaving them with no divisions or championship game. The co-champions are Kansas State (10-1, 7-1) and Oklahoma (9-2, 7-1), with the tiebreaker going to Kansas State, who beat Oklahoma head-to-head early in the season.
The Pac-12 recently also expanded to allow a conference championship game and two divisions, North and South. At the helm of the North division is Stanford (10-2, 8-1) who neither has the best record nor the highest rank in the Pac-12. That distinction goes to Oregon (11-1, 8-1) who lost its tie-breaking head-to-head game against Stanford last week. Stanford will play UCLA (9-3, 6-3) in their championship game next week.
Finally, the Southeastern Conference. The SEC is really its own worst enemy. The BCS is designed to promote equality across the board. Then the SEC went and became the single most dominant conference in college football since the days of the Ivy League, going six for six in National Championships and littering the BCS standings with half its teams. Computers will tell you that some weeks the Big 12 is the best conference in the FBS. This is really only because the members of the SEC have to play themselves. There have to be losers. Nothing is more evident this year with the recent firings of Kentucky head coach, Joker Phillips, Tennessee head coach, Derek Dooley, and probable firing of Auburn head coach, Gene Chizik*. The worst SEC teams are still winning most of their non-conference games. They just have no option but to lose to the best SEC teams. And those teams are only losing to each other. Texas A&M only lost to LSU and Florida. LSU only lost to Alabama and Florida. Florida only lost to Georgia. Georgia only lost to South Carolina. South Carolina only lost to Florida and LSU. Alabama only lost to Texas A&M. It's tough to really pick a victor out of this rock-paper-scissors-like stalemate but the fact of the matter remains that while the best teams in the nation beat themselves up, teams like Notre Dame, Kansas State, Oregon and Ohio State are sneaking through with perfect and near-perfect records because they don't have to play each other, or any of the SEC. Just a few weeks ago, it appeared as if the SEC wouldn't have any representation in the National Championship because they all beat themselves. Professional sports would realign the conferences to redistribute the strength (see Major League Baseball), but with over 120 FBS programs and over 100 years of tradition, this idea becomes unimaginable.
*Gene Chizik was officially fired minutes after this entry was posted.
The actual conference realignment just made it worse; this year's Texas A&M squad would go undefeated had they stayed in the Big 12. The college football world almost imploded on itself when their own fair system put two SEC teams in the national championship, who had already played each other, though the Alabama blowout legitimized its own necessity. This year's season was one Notre Dame loss away from Florida facing the SEC champion at the National Championship in a repeat of last year. Depending on how the upcoming four team playoff works, we may still have all-SEC National Championships, despite an even more "fair" system. The SEC isn't going away and it's time the world gets used to it, but back to the current SEC standings.
The SEC is broken up into two divisions, East and West, and invented the now problematic conference championship game in 1992. No. 2 Alabama (11-1, 7-1) leads the West indisputably while No. 3 Georgia (11-1, 7-1) is tied for co-champion of the East with No. 4 Florida (11-1, 7-1). Georgia won its head-to-head against Florida for the tie-breaker, however (in case anyone's forgotten). Once again, though each of the three teams leading the SEC in standings are all tied, the provision of an extra game will provide one team with an extra loss and another with essentially a bye into the bowl season. With each of the three teams ranked in the top 4, the winner of the SEC championship game will go on to the National Championship while the loser will be jumped by Florida to secure a No. 3 ranking and a Sugar Bowl appearance. Going down the current BCS standings will show how the rest of the SEC is being snubbed out of BCS bowls by lower ranked non-SEC teams. No 7. LSU (who will likely finish No. 6 over the Alabama-Georgia loser), No. 9 Texas A&M, who may also make a move, No. 12 South Carolina, who should finish at No. 10, add up to four top ten teams who will not appear in BCS bowls. It's about time we redefine "fair" and just let the SEC take over.
All things considered, the final BCS Bowls should look something like this (BCS rankings are also projected):
Consistency or lack thereof? This is a team that has left fans stumped week in and week out. At first it was, "Oh wow, we keep winning" followed by "We beat LSU, so Florida's back right?" to "LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE!" The Gators keep looking like a team whose chief motivation comes from the other side of the field. They'll play up or down to their opponent's skill level and the reason remains a mystery. Doing so against Louisville could be disastrous, who have played some of their best football while trailing, and won more than half of their games in comebacks. 
Battle of the trenches. One of the major factors behind the Gators success or failure on offense was the health of the offensive line. Earlier in the season through LSU when the Gators were establishing their power running identity, a very talented group of linemen stood strong while a much thinner group took the field in the later weeks. The impact on pass protection and overall rushing was painfully noticeable. Against Louisville, expect the starting line to take the field. The average weight of the Florida O-line is 310 pounds, nearly 30 pounds per person heavier than the Louisville defensive line. All signs point to a fairly easy win at the line of scrimmage: lots of time for Jeff Driskel, and lots of room for Mike Gillislee.
Free Gilly. Mike Gillislee has already had a remarkable senior season. He is the first Gator running back to break 1,000 yards in eight years, after very patiently waiting his turn for three years. He's had a very critical role in Florida's success this seasons, and fans cheered and tweeted Free Gilly in celebration of his breakout role, but now the time has come to actually free Gillislee in his last game as a Florida Gator. Running behind a very favorably larger offensive line, Mike Gillislee's swan song should be impressive in his return to the Sugar Bowl (Gillislee rushed for the team-high 78 yards in the '09 Sugar Bowl as a freshman).
Charlie Strong. For the two of you reading this who don't know who Charlie Strong is, he spent most of his coaching career at Florida and was hired by Galen Hall in '88, kept on by Steve Spurrier, promoted to defensive coordinator in 2002, and kept that position through the tenures of Spurrier and Ron Zook. After Zook's firing, Strong served as the interim head coach for the Peach Bowl game against Miami. Urban Meyer cleaned house when he arrived, but still kept Strong as defensive coordinator until Strong was offered the Louisville head coaching position. Having served under four different head coaches and surviving each transition says a lot about a coach, because keeping on previous (typically failing) staff members is highly irregular. Strong has proven himself to be one of the best defensive minds in college football today and still has significant influence over the state of Florida, having recruited 34 of his current Louisville players from here. Strong has been removed from Florida football for three seasons now so there are very few remnants of his tenure left. Other than having recruited players like Jon Bostic and knowing them well, his history with the Gators shouldn't have much effect on the game.
Cardinal drives. Methodical would be putting it lightly. Louisville has a very well balanced plan of attack with a near 50-50 run pass ratio, making them clock killers. Louisville is tied with Georgia Tech (a triple-option run offense) for first in the nation in touchdown drives of over 5 minutes (13). The also rank in the top ten for touchdown drives of over 10 plays with 17, and touchdown drives of over 80 yards with 16. This will put pressure on the Florida offense as they might be given less time on the field to work with. 
