Sugar Bowl: Florida v. Louisville

by Arnaldo

The Sugar Bowl: once the most coveted postseason destination for SEC teams, before the BCS era.  Now a days, the BCS separates the best teams from their tie-in bowls for the National Championship.  The SEC has obviously been included in that game for the better part of a decade, slightly diluting the significance of the Sugar Bowl for the SEC's runner-up.  Florida is okay with that though.  Putting everything into perspective, finishing at the Sugar Bowl is a huge step from 8-5 Outback Bowl in 2010, 7-6 Gator Bowl in 2011, and a No. 24 preseason ranking just a few months ago.  The Gators sit at BCS No. 3 and a win against No. 21 Louisville (10-2) guarantees a final No. 2 ranking (someone has to lose the National Championship). Finishing as the second best team in college football is far above anyone's preseason expectations.

So what have we learned about this team thus far?

Consistency or lack thereof?  This is a team that has left fans stumped week in and week out.  At first it was, "Oh wow, we keep winning" followed by "We beat LSU, so Florida's back right?" to "LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE!"  The Gators keep looking like a team whose chief motivation comes from the other side of the field.  They'll play up or down to their opponent's skill level and the reason remains a mystery.  Doing so against Louisville could be disastrous, who have played some of their best football while trailing, and won more than half of their games in comebacks.

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We've learned that Will Muschamp was the right hire.  After a painful 7-6 (3-5) "rebuilding" season where some fans lost whatever faith they had in the first year coach, we're in a one-loss Sugar Bowl berth of a season, have arguably the nation's top defense, a schedule full of statement wins, and only one season of growing pains before reaching elite status once again.  At this point, I have more confidence in Muschamp's abilities as a recruiter, play-caller, personnel manager, and the intangibles that go into being a head coach than I ever did in Urban Meyer, and that's obviously saying something.

The future looks promising for the Florida Gators, who will be looking at this Sugar Bowl as both the statement to cap a season where they had everything to prove, and a springboard into next season where expectations can only go up by one game. 


The Match-Up

Contain Teddy Bridgewater.  Every week here, I dissect the opposing quarterback and go on about how dangerous he is, before Florida efficiently shuts them down, but this time, I mean it.  It's been a testament more to our defense than anything that we've shut down Heisman winner Johnny Manziel, Aaron Murray, EJ Manual, and Tyler Bray, while having the nation's top defense in pass efficiency.  Bridgewater was recruited by Charlie Strong to play for Florida before moving to Louisville and took his prized recruit with him, who is sure to be in the early 2013 Heisman conversations.  He has 3,452 yards on the season, with 25 touchdowns and 7 interceptions for a 69% completion rating.  Bridgewater plays his best under pressure.  While the Cardinal trailed this season, he's been throwing at 67% for 13 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions.  He's also an incredibly skilled scrambler.  If Louisville plans on winning, it won't be the designed plays that will do it, but the extended plays.  Containing Bridgewater and forcing Charlie Strong to stay conventional is key.  Bridgewater sustained a broken wrist and a sprained ankle during the regular season.  Charlie Strong admits that while he isn't 100%, it shouldn't matter come kickoff.


Battle of the trenches.  One of the major factors behind the Gators success or failure on offense was the health of the offensive line.  Earlier in the season through LSU when the Gators were establishing their power running identity, a very talented group of linemen stood strong while a much thinner group took the field in the later weeks.  The impact on pass protection and overall rushing was painfully noticeable.  Against Louisville, expect the starting line to take the field.  The average weight of the Florida O-line is 310 pounds, nearly 30 pounds per person heavier than the Louisville defensive line.  All signs point to a fairly easy win at the line of scrimmage: lots of time for Jeff Driskel, and lots of room for Mike Gillislee.


Free Gilly.  Mike Gillislee has already had a remarkable senior season.  He is the first Gator running back to break 1,000 yards in eight years, after very patiently waiting his turn for three years.  He's had a very critical role in Florida's success this seasons, and fans cheered and tweeted Free Gilly in celebration of his breakout role, but now the time has come to actually free Gillislee in his last game as a Florida Gator.  Running behind a very favorably larger offensive line, Mike Gillislee's swan song should be impressive in his return to the Sugar Bowl (Gillislee rushed for the team-high 78 yards in the '09 Sugar Bowl as a freshman).


Charlie Strong.  For the two of you reading this who don't know who Charlie Strong is, he spent most of his coaching career at Florida and was hired by Galen Hall in '88, kept on by Steve Spurrier, promoted to defensive coordinator in 2002, and kept that position through the tenures of Spurrier and Ron Zook.  After Zook's firing, Strong served as the interim head coach for the Peach Bowl game against Miami.  Urban Meyer cleaned house when he arrived, but still kept Strong as defensive coordinator until Strong was offered the Louisville head coaching position.  Having served under four different head coaches and surviving each transition says a lot about a coach, because keeping on previous (typically failing) staff members is highly irregular.  Strong has proven himself to be one of the best defensive minds in college football today and still has significant influence over the state of Florida, having recruited 34 of his current Louisville players from here.  Strong has been removed from Florida football for three seasons now so there are very few remnants of his tenure left.  Other than having recruited players like Jon Bostic and knowing them well, his history with the Gators shouldn't have much effect on the game.


Cardinal drives.  Methodical would be putting it lightly.  Louisville has a very well balanced plan of attack with a near 50-50 run pass ratio, making them clock killers.  Louisville is tied with Georgia Tech (a triple-option run offense) for first in the nation in touchdown drives of over 5 minutes (13).  The also rank in the top ten for touchdown drives of over 10 plays with 17, and touchdown drives of over 80 yards with 16.  This will put pressure on the Florida offense as they might be given less time on the field to work with.



Arnaldo's prediction:

Florida wins 34 - 14