Florida v. Vanderbilt

by Arnaldo

Trap game.  It's the game you're expected to win.  There's a much bigger challenge the following week, and the team has overlooked the unsuspecting foe in between.  Vanderbilt is, year in and year out, the trap game that never was.  Vanderbilt hasn't beaten Florida since 1988, a streak that follows shortly behind the Florida - Kentucky win streak.  But every year, Vanderbilt sits at a sandwich week and the Gators seem to prepare for the worst, with good reason.  2005 provided the infamous "keys game" where Gator students start jingling their keys at the Commodores only being up one touchdown with two minutes left.  Jay Cutler and Vanderbilt scored with 54 seconds left to send the game into double-overtime.  The following year in Nashville, the Gators were up 25-6 while singing "We Are the Boys" into the fourth quarter when Vandy led a two-score comeback to make it one failed onside kick from a huge upset.  Don't let the streak fool you, this isn't Kentucky.  Vanderbilt is always a potential trap.

For Florida, there are two kinds of top 5 teams.  There are those that have been awarded the ranking because of an impressive win, or because they were overrated preseason and just haven't lost yet, and then there are those that are simply complete.  After fighting for some tough victories and going 5-0 for the first time since the undefeated (regular season) all-season top-ranked 2009 Gators,  Florida has kicked down doors to jump twenty spots to No. 4 (Florida was ranked 24th by week 2).  Now we're left wondering, are we truly complete?  Can we realistically contend for an SEC Championship, or daresay, a National Championship?  This is one of those games where questions may be answered.  The Gators still need to prove a lot.  Can the offense get rolling early?  Can they establish a pass game to compliment the run?  How skilled exactly is the receiving corps?  Can we be physical, focused, clean, and complete enough to stand tall with South Carolina and Alabama at the top of the SEC, and the NCAA?


The Match-Up


Vanderbilt is down, hurt, and weak, but they're not bad.  They sit at 2-3 (1-2 SEC) but have had some "quality losses" against South Carolina and Northwestern.  Recall the season opener when Vanderbilt lost a very winnable game against the Gamecocks 17-13.  The Commodores are that sleeper SEC team that can really sneak up on anybody.

Completeness - For the Gators to be complete, they need to prove they have a passing game.  It was never in the cards to air the ball around the field for Florida.  Will Muschamp and offensive coordinator, Brent Peaseb have been very vocal about that.  They want a run 'em between the hash-marks football team, and it's been an excuse to not throw the ball much.  Jeff Driskel has hit 69.2% of his passes (which is pretty good), while the Gators are 115th in the nation passing the ball.  The numbers just show we're not even trying to pass.  As long as Driskel can complete 69% or more in any given game, we should be fine, but what happens when the run game gets shut down, well read, or Mike Gillislee strains something, and Driskel is asked to make more than 15 passes a game?  Today is a day when I would like to see more passing, no matter our philosophy.


Jeff Driskel - Against LSU, Driskel showed his ability to regress a bit as a quarterback from all the progress he had made throughout the season.  He stayed in the pocket like a sitting duck getting sacked 5 times, and was caught scrambling around the backfield when he should've done what he does best, tuck the ball high and tight and run straight forward.  Maturity comes and goes with quarterbacks so watch Driskel try to make up for last week's mistakes, and look for Pease to show the Gamecocks watching in that we can throw the ball successfully.


Pass protection - Those five sacks mentioned were not all Jeff Driskel's fault.  There were two in a row where LSU penetrated the Florida offensive line before Driskel could even regrip the football.  As much praise as the offensive line received last week for leading a great run attack against a great LSU run defense, they were also incredibly one-dimensional; not a big deal when you run the ball as much as we did, but there are some serious holes in our pass protection.  I would rather chose not to pass the ball than be forced not to pass the ball.


Jordan Rodgers - Yes, he's THE Aaron Rodgers little brother.  He doesn't always play like Aaron though so don't let that little tidbit run away with you.  He's been 57/103 this season (55.3% completion) and hasn't had that Rodgers poise, but this is the quarterback who almost led the 'Dores to a victory at the Swamp last year, losing only 21-26 and throwing for 297 yards and two touchdowns.  He has the ability to be a Zach Mettenberger, but also has the ability to be an Aaron Rodgers.


Home field advantage? - Unfortunately, Vandy doesn't have the home field that most of the SEC has.  It's not the Swamp, or Death Valley.  Hell, it's not even Commonwealth Stadium.  Vanderbilt Stadium, which seats only forty-thousand, is sold out this week for the first time since the Gators visited in 2008.  So they only sell out when excited Gator fans feel like visiting the Music City.  Moral of the story, we're playing at a mini Swamp this week.  Don't look for many "road woes".

Keep up the D - The Florida defense has been stout, it has been physical, and it has been consistent, but only just.  It's a defense that plays significantly better in the third and fourth quarters, and one that seems to just get tougher and tougher as the season rolls on.  My question is, has the defense gotten better every week, or are they playing at their opponent as the schedule has gradually gotten tougher?  With Vandy being the first real decline in the schedule, I want to see the Gators defense perform like they did against LSU from start to finish, week to week.  As always, it starts with Matt Elam, Sharrif Floyd, Jon Bostic, and Lerente McCray.


Arnaldo's prediction: 

Florida wins 41 - 17