Florida v. LSU

 by Arnaldo

Les Miles and the Louisiana State University have been the biggest thorn on the Gators' side for quite some time.  In recent years, the rivalry hasn't been the deepest-seeded but has carried some of the larger implications.  For three straight years, the winner of this game went on to win the National Championship, and almost always becomes a dominant contender in the SEC.  LSU continues to be one of my favorite rivalries to watch, and the reason is because it's not one full of hatred, but rather respect.  Gators fans don't hate LSU, they just think they smell like corn dogs.  No one knows why.  I've always thought of LSU as Florida's Bizzaro school.

Probably college football's most intimidating live
mascot, Mike the Tiger.

Besides having similar uniforms in a different set of complimentary colors, competing with us to see who can pop out more, the Tigers seem to have their own, just as great, set of unique traditions, from wearing white at home, to somehow scheduling all their home games at night.  The traditions we share are having probably the two loudest home stadiums in the nation, and a rich tradition of winning.  Most importantly, this match-up is both teams first real SEC test each year, which is why this game is often the most important of the season.


The Match-Up


The LSU Tigers are not the 4th best team in the country.  It's that simple.  Anyone with eyes can see that.  The reason they're ranked as such is because they started at No. 3 and haven't lost a game.  We learn a lot about teams in the first few weeks that no preseason stat could show, but each ranking is based off of the previous one, all the way back to the preseason rank, which is really just a guess.  So when the National Championship runner-ups bring back most starters and replace the NFL-ers and seniors with huge underclassmen talent, the preseason pollsters have no choice but to put them in the top five.  No games have been played, why not?  Today, however, we know much more about the "No. 4" LSU Tigers, and all signs point to an upset in Gainesville.

First and foremost, LSU does not look good.  They've only been proficient at shooting themselves in the foot.  In their last two games they've accumulated 19 penalties for 149 yards and have won their last two games by only an average margin of 9 points.  While that's still two scores, they were expected to win each game by at least three or more touchdowns against LSU and FCS Towson.

"Was it because of all the weed?"

Last Couple Weeks - Bye weeks are always beneficial.  It gives the team an extra week to study film, build game plans, and practice accordingly.  Most importantly however, it lets a team get healthy.  These two teams are having very different previous weeks.   The Gators are enjoying their bye and getting healthy.  Jelani Jenkins, Dominique Easley, and Trey Burton are all expected to play.  Meanwhile in Baton Rouge, LSU will not dress linebacker Tahj Jones for academic issues, left tackle, Chris Faulk (their best O-lineman), who is out for the season from a knee injury, running back Alfred Blue, from a knee injury, and fullback, J.C. Copeland, also with a knee injury.  This just adds on to the preseason loss of Heisman hopeful, Tyrann Mathieu, for "breaking the rules."  While the Gators played a very easy game against Kentucky two weeks ago and rested last Saturday, the Tigers struggled against Auburn (12-10) and then still couldn't find the right chemistry against FCS Towson (38-22).  We're talking Auburn, who doesn't hit the top 50 in any statistical category, and is scoring an average of 17.5 points a game; the SEC team who's only victory has been against Louisiana-Monroe in overtime.  And then there's Towson, an FCS team who was paid graciously to come to Death Valley and take a beating.  They put up 22 points on the heavily-touted LSU defense.  This all translates into momentum, the greatest intangible in football, and the Gators have all of it right now.

Florida Consistency - Sadly, as I've previously mentioned, the Gators are lacking consistency and fast starts.  Its seems that we're hearing "Orange and Blue" being played mostly in the second halves of games, and penalty whistles in the first.  Even in the blowout against Kentucky, Florida couldn't find the end zone until the second quarter.  As many negative stats as I've mentioned for the LSU defense, they're no joke.  They're made of some of the most skilled defensive players in college football who have just not found a rhythm quite yet.  They have the ability to turn it around at any point in the season.  The Gators need to exploit their mishaps early in the game and score, to ensure an Auburn/Towson defensive performance. 

Battle of the Trenches and Rushing the Passer - The battle of the trenches is going to be one of the more deciding match-ups, especially the Gators' offensive line versus the Tigers' defensive front.  It's a front that has allowed an average of 83 rush yards per game and are exceptionally skilled at rushing the passer.  Muschamp has been vocal about how focused he is on their defensive front. "That front right there is impressive,'' he said. "Whether it's Mingo, Edwards, Johnson, Downs, Logan, Ferguson, Montgomery, it don’t matter. They all can run. They can rush the passer. They play with great motors. You’ve to maintain blocks versus these guys. They don’t stay blocked long."  This will put a lot of pressure on Jeff Driskel to move around, in and out of the pocket.  With little time allowed by the LSU line, he'll have to showcase his mobility now more than ever, which, let's not forget, is one of the top reasons we recruited him.

On the other side of the ball, the Gators defensive line needs to improve rushing the passer.  They've only recorded 5 sacks, tying for last place in the SEC, but with the return of Dominique Easley and the soft spot left from Chris Faulk's left tackle position, the stage is set for a possible emergence of defensive pressure from our front four to shaky LSU quarterback Zack Mettenberger.  Brought in as a junior college transfer to fix what Jarret Lee/Jordan Jefferson left behind, Mettenberger hasn't looked much better.  He ranks eighth in the SEC in yards per game, seventh in completion percentage, and ninth in touchdown passes.  Not to mention, he's been sacked eleven times and has fumbled the ball three times, losing all three.  I think Mettenberger handles pressure worse than Tennessee's Tyler Bray, and we all remember how malleable he became in the fourth quarter.  While LSU has a much tougher offensive line protecting him, look for Florida to try similar tactics to remove the passing game from the LSU scheme.


The Mad Hatter - The Tigers haven't beaten the Gators, at least since 2005, without using some trickeration.  Taking risks is what the Mad Hatter is known for.  Two seasons ago, he revived the over-the-head fake field goal that stole him a National Championship in '07.  Last season, punter, Brad Wing, ran a fake punt in for a touchdown, before being called for a taunting penalty.  Whether it's a deliberate trick play, or just a unexpected play call, Will Muschamp will do his best to expect the unexpected.  After all, against the Hat, that's really all you can do.


 Arnaldo's prediction:

Florida wins 23 - 19