Florida v. LSU

 by Arnaldo

Les Miles and the Louisiana State University have been the biggest thorn on the Gators' side for quite some time.  In recent years, the rivalry hasn't been the deepest-seeded but has carried some of the larger implications.  For three straight years, the winner of this game went on to win the National Championship, and almost always becomes a dominant contender in the SEC.  LSU continues to be one of my favorite rivalries to watch, and the reason is because it's not one full of hatred, but rather respect.  Gators fans don't hate LSU, they just think they smell like corn dogs.  No one knows why.  I've always thought of LSU as Florida's Bizzaro school.

Probably college football's most intimidating live
mascot, Mike the Tiger.

Besides having similar uniforms in a different set of complimentary colors, competing with us to see who can pop out more, the Tigers seem to have their own, just as great, set of unique traditions, from wearing white at home, to somehow scheduling all their home games at night.  The traditions we share are having probably the two loudest home stadiums in the nation, and a rich tradition of winning.  Most importantly, this match-up is both teams first real SEC test each year, which is why this game is often the most important of the season.


The Match-Up


The LSU Tigers are not the 4th best team in the country.  It's that simple.  Anyone with eyes can see that.  The reason they're ranked as such is because they started at No. 3 and haven't lost a game.  We learn a lot about teams in the first few weeks that no preseason stat could show, but each ranking is based off of the previous one, all the way back to the preseason rank, which is really just a guess.  So when the National Championship runner-ups bring back most starters and replace the NFL-ers and seniors with huge underclassmen talent, the preseason pollsters have no choice but to put them in the top five.  No games have been played, why not?  Today, however, we know much more about the "No. 4" LSU Tigers, and all signs point to an upset in Gainesville.

First and foremost, LSU does not look good.  They've only been proficient at shooting themselves in the foot.  In their last two games they've accumulated 19 penalties for 149 yards and have won their last two games by only an average margin of 9 points.  While that's still two scores, they were expected to win each game by at least three or more touchdowns against LSU and FCS Towson.

"Was it because of all the weed?"

Last Couple Weeks - Bye weeks are always beneficial.  It gives the team an extra week to study film, build game plans, and practice accordingly.  Most importantly however, it lets a team get healthy.  These two teams are having very different previous weeks.   The Gators are enjoying their bye and getting healthy.  Jelani Jenkins, Dominique Easley, and Trey Burton are all expected to play.  Meanwhile in Baton Rouge, LSU will not dress linebacker Tahj Jones for academic issues, left tackle, Chris Faulk (their best O-lineman), who is out for the season from a knee injury, running back Alfred Blue, from a knee injury, and fullback, J.C. Copeland, also with a knee injury.  This just adds on to the preseason loss of Heisman hopeful, Tyrann Mathieu, for "breaking the rules."  While the Gators played a very easy game against Kentucky two weeks ago and rested last Saturday, the Tigers struggled against Auburn (12-10) and then still couldn't find the right chemistry against FCS Towson (38-22).  We're talking Auburn, who doesn't hit the top 50 in any statistical category, and is scoring an average of 17.5 points a game; the SEC team who's only victory has been against Louisiana-Monroe in overtime.  And then there's Towson, an FCS team who was paid graciously to come to Death Valley and take a beating.  They put up 22 points on the heavily-touted LSU defense.  This all translates into momentum, the greatest intangible in football, and the Gators have all of it right now.

Florida Consistency - Sadly, as I've previously mentioned, the Gators are lacking consistency and fast starts.  Its seems that we're hearing "Orange and Blue" being played mostly in the second halves of games, and penalty whistles in the first.  Even in the blowout against Kentucky, Florida couldn't find the end zone until the second quarter.  As many negative stats as I've mentioned for the LSU defense, they're no joke.  They're made of some of the most skilled defensive players in college football who have just not found a rhythm quite yet.  They have the ability to turn it around at any point in the season.  The Gators need to exploit their mishaps early in the game and score, to ensure an Auburn/Towson defensive performance. 

Battle of the Trenches and Rushing the Passer - The battle of the trenches is going to be one of the more deciding match-ups, especially the Gators' offensive line versus the Tigers' defensive front.  It's a front that has allowed an average of 83 rush yards per game and are exceptionally skilled at rushing the passer.  Muschamp has been vocal about how focused he is on their defensive front. "That front right there is impressive,'' he said. "Whether it's Mingo, Edwards, Johnson, Downs, Logan, Ferguson, Montgomery, it don’t matter. They all can run. They can rush the passer. They play with great motors. You’ve to maintain blocks versus these guys. They don’t stay blocked long."  This will put a lot of pressure on Jeff Driskel to move around, in and out of the pocket.  With little time allowed by the LSU line, he'll have to showcase his mobility now more than ever, which, let's not forget, is one of the top reasons we recruited him.

On the other side of the ball, the Gators defensive line needs to improve rushing the passer.  They've only recorded 5 sacks, tying for last place in the SEC, but with the return of Dominique Easley and the soft spot left from Chris Faulk's left tackle position, the stage is set for a possible emergence of defensive pressure from our front four to shaky LSU quarterback Zack Mettenberger.  Brought in as a junior college transfer to fix what Jarret Lee/Jordan Jefferson left behind, Mettenberger hasn't looked much better.  He ranks eighth in the SEC in yards per game, seventh in completion percentage, and ninth in touchdown passes.  Not to mention, he's been sacked eleven times and has fumbled the ball three times, losing all three.  I think Mettenberger handles pressure worse than Tennessee's Tyler Bray, and we all remember how malleable he became in the fourth quarter.  While LSU has a much tougher offensive line protecting him, look for Florida to try similar tactics to remove the passing game from the LSU scheme.


The Mad Hatter - The Tigers haven't beaten the Gators, at least since 2005, without using some trickeration.  Taking risks is what the Mad Hatter is known for.  Two seasons ago, he revived the over-the-head fake field goal that stole him a National Championship in '07.  Last season, punter, Brad Wing, ran a fake punt in for a touchdown, before being called for a taunting penalty.  Whether it's a deliberate trick play, or just a unexpected play call, Will Muschamp will do his best to expect the unexpected.  After all, against the Hat, that's really all you can do.


 Arnaldo's prediction:

Florida wins 23 - 19

Florida v. Tennessee

by Arnaldo

"Rocky top, you'll always be home, sweet home, to me!"  ... Ugh.  The worst part of the "Third Saturday in September" is always sitting through The Pride of the Southland Band playing Rocky Top nearly 43 times.  And then there's the awkward moment when you find yourself humming the insufferably catchy tune as the Volunteers are walking out of the Swamp with Smokey's tail between his legs (this is not an impartial blog).


The Rivalry


... That never really was.  When I think of Florida's rivals, I think Georgia, Florida State, LSU, and sometimes Alabama.  What makes a great rivalry is competition and as you all know, in the last few years we've each beaten and lost to those teams.  Our streak against Tennessee is looking at a potential 8th year.  Only one of those games was even close.  The dwindling rivalry found its peak in the '90s, when Steve Spurrier and Phil Fulmer were each building the South's new reputation in football.  Danny Wuerffel was preparing a National Championship/Heisman run, while Peyton Manning was evolving into one of the best quarterbacks ever.  You know what he could never do, however?  Beat the Gators.

"You must hate me..."

 Spurrier loved to put down the Vols with quips like, "you can't spell Citrus without UT," and, "I heard they just hung a new sign outside the Citrus Bowl in Orlando: WINTER HOME OF THE TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS."  The Citrus Bowl, now known as the Capital One Bowl, is usually reserved for the second best team in the SEC and was a common game for the Vols while the Gators were invited to more prestigious bowl games. 

"Umm... yeah... sorry?"

The departure of Fulmer and arrival of Lane Kiffen at Tennessee almost relit the rivalry.  Kiffen was doing all the right things: coaching up his team, bringing in his father the legendary defensive coordinator, Monte Kiffen, and trying his best to talk to a big game.  At his inaugural speech he said he was looking forward to Tennessee traditions such as "singing Rocky Top all night after beating (top-ranked) Florida."  He later publicly accused Urban Meyer of committing a recruiting violation that doesn't exist, and by doing so, ironically broke an actual SEC rule.  Urban Meyer responded by beating the Volunteers 23-13, purposefully not running up the score as expected, which was considered as even more of an insult than lighting up the scoreboard.

Albert changes his iconic
orange sweater for a blue
one against Tennesee.

As dull as the match-ups have been on the field, fans of both schools still love this rivalry.  In Gainesville, students spend all week making redneck/incest jokes while in Knoxville, fans are making the same jorts comments (presumably, I really don't care).  When the Volunteers come to Florida Field fans and students "blue out" the stadium to stand out from their opponents who share the color orange, albeit a dull and lifeless shade.  To fuel the game and add pressure, ESPN's College Gameday is following the Gators to Knoxville for a second consecutive week.

2007 "Blue Out" as requested by Urban Meyer.

The Match-up

As easy as it's been to beat the Vols in recent history, this year will be much different.  The Volunteers are ranked for the first time since week 1 of 2008 and for good reason: they produce.  They've had two back-to-back games of 500 yards for the first time in 12 years.  Third year head coach Derek Dooley is raising his program back into prominence and needs this statement win to prove he can make waves in the SEC, but then again, so does Will Muschamp and the Gators.  Here are my keys to the game:

Protecting Driskel - Last week against the Aggies, Jeff Driskel was sacked 8 times.  That's 7 too many in my book.  Now the problem doesn't necessarily lie within the o-line's protection; Driskel admits that he held onto the ball for too long on several plays, to which I say, "we noticed."  But bettering this is a two pronged solution: on one hand Driskel does need to make his pocket decisions much quicker, and on the other, the offensive line needs to understand that the young quarterback is still facing a learning curve and work harder on their blocks.



Tyler Bray - He's excellent.  I'd rank him fourth in the SEC after Aaron Murray (Georgia), Tyler Wilson (Arkansas), and A.J. McCarron (Alabama).  The junior quarterback missed five games last season but still racked up 1,983 yards over his seven starts.  Running a no-huddle offense, so far this season he's thrown for 643 yards and six touchdowns, and he hits the big plays.  Bray completes 76.2% of his passes over 15 yards and out of those six touchdowns, five have been on passes of 15 yards or over.

He also has great
taste in body art.

Even worse, Tennessee sports one of the SEC's best receiving corps.  Justin Hunter (11), who is coming off a three-touchdown game against Georgia State, and junior college transfer Cordarrelle Patterson (84), who has proved himself over the last two games with 360 all-purpose yards.  Luckily, returning star, Da'Rick Rogers transferred to Tennessee Tech last month.  Look for Muschamp to keep a nickel/dime package on the field most for most of the game and utilize our depth at secondary.





Turnovers - The Gators aren't making any.  I'll preach it every week until we start, but the critical piece missing in the Gators defense is turnovers.  It's hard to teach forcing fumbles or being at the right place at the right time, but what the defense can focus on is not letting the right opportunities slip through their fingers (sometimes literally).  Several potential interceptions were dropped against Bowling Green, and I do recall a fumble that was knocked to the sidelines for no turnover at College Station.  The offense can't capitalize off turnovers if the defense doesn't seize these opportunities.


Injuries - Texas A&M didn't go down without a fight, and they took Jelani Jenkins and Cody Riggs with them.  Neither are expected to return today, and when you combine them with the still missing Ronald Powell, the defense is getting thinner.  True freshman Antonio Morrison (12) will be stepping in for Jenkins, while the pretty deep cornerbacks group moves around to fill in for Riggs.  Mike Gillislee strained a groin running in a touchdown but is expected to play.  He, along with Dominique Easley and Josh Evans have suffered minor injuries in the first two games so they'll at some risk of aggravation.

Stopping the Run -  There's a defensive strategy in football that basically says, "slow down their best components but stop their weaker ones."  The idea here is, Tennessee is a pass-centered team with a good quarterback and great receivers, but there's no such thing as a one-dimensional winning team.  The Gators need to focus and slowing down Bray, yes, but by stopping the run, which they're more than capable of doing, much more pressure gets put on Bray.  Our decent secondary and fast pass rush should take care of the rest. 



Tale of Two Defenses - This is what we saw at Texas A&M.  The first half defense allowed the first three Aggie drives to end in scores and the fourth was thankfully ended by the clock.  The yards allowed for those drives are as follows: 66, 81, 79, and 44.  Yards allowed in the second half per drive: 8, 1, 6, 5, 9, and 22.  Impressed?  So am I.  Will Muschamp finally found something to motivate his defense and provide them with something they didn't have during the Bowling Green game or the first half at Texas A&M.  Like I said last week, these guys were top recruits.  They're out of excuses and it's nice to see they can actually stand up to their potential but in the end, it's a discipline issue.  There's nothing I can reference to prove they'll show up again today.


Arnaldo's Prediction:

Florida win 34 - 20

Florida v. Bowling Green

by Arnaldo

The 2012 season opens up on Saturday with Bowling Green coming to Gainesville, and the Gator Nation couldn't be more excited, or more nervous.  The SEC isn't getting any easier.  In fact, it may be even harder.  This is the first time half of the preseason top 10 are in the same conference, and after the way the SEC made last year's Gators look, it's hard to inspire hope.

This particular match-up marks the last remnants of Urban Meyer at UF, or so we hope.  He helped schedule this game to send his original head coaching job some money.  It would've been a nice symbol of his great career. . . but we're done with that.  It's time to focus on a new year.


What to Expect


I've heard some chatter along the lines of, "what if we lose to Bowling Green?"  Cut it out.  There is no losing this Saturday.  We've conformed with not winning every single game since the end of the '09 season, even against teams that were once much inferior:  Auburn, FSU, Georgia, South Carolina.  Being in the SEC allows you to schedule a cupcake in week one to run a glorified scrimmage.  If you've been watching NFL preseason games, this will be a lot like that.  Later portions of the game will see a lot of second and third string players.  Also keep in mind that we're under yet another transition with Brent Pease coming in as offensive coordinator.  The Gators won't be in the business of running up the score, there may not even be much concern over the score as long as the Gators are winning.  This game is all about individual performances in real game situations.


What to Look For

Jacoby Brissett (left) and Jeff Driskel (right).
Both have changed their numbers since last season.

Quarterbacks.  The single loudest storyline this week has been Will Muschamp's reluctance to name a starting quarterback, and it's hard to blame him.  Jeff Driskel (6) and Jacoby Brissett (12) were recruited very similarly, ranked first and third quarterback prospects nationally.  What we saw of them last year was also too similar: crumbling under pressure in impossible circumstances.  Driskel was forced to play against the eventual national champions, while Brissett was forced to start against their runner-up.  What we have now should be two much more experienced and confident passers.  I realize it's easy to be nervous about such a glaring question mark on the depth chart, but close competition is always good for the team.  Muschamp isn't looking for a two quarterback system.  He's looking for a starter, and a live game is the perfect place to find one.  Rest assured that on the way to College Station, Texas, the Gators will have their starting quarterback.

Mike Gillislee

Mike Gillislee.  The transition from Urban Meyer's spread option to Will Muschamp's pro-style hasn't been easy.  It's not just about playbooks and audibles; it's about players, and at runningback, we found ourselves with two incredibly talented spread option type playmakers.  Speedy option pitchmen, open space runners, track stars.  In a pro-style, downhill running attack, however, Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey were rendered almost useless.  Then-offensive coordinator, Charlie Weis, had to experiment with nearly extinct formations like the pistol and full house just to keep them somewhat effective.  Mike Gillislee (23) was recruited to be an inside option back.  This means he's supposed to be running in between the tackles, but still in a system that utilizes deception and open space to succeed.  The old Mike Gillislee would still not fit in.  The new Mike Gillislee might.  He claims to have put on 10 pounds and both him and Will Mushchamp won't shut up about it.  "I was very impressed with his lunch-pail attitude," he said on the last day of camp.  "1,500 yards rushing and 24 touchdowns.  That's my goal.  That's what I want to do.  If not, then come close," said Gillislee.  If you know anything about season long runningback stats, you know he shouldn't even come close, but good for him for setting a goal that can motivate him to get as close as he can.  Also keep an eye our for true freshman Matt Jones (24) around the end of the game, who was actually recruited by size and skill to fit into our offense.

Andre Debose

Receiving corps.  The 2011 edition of the Florida Gators was not known for offensive production.  Most third downs seemed to be converted by the jack-of-all-trades tight end Jordan Reed (11).  John Brantley seemed to only make passes between the hashes so as far as the receivers are concerned, it's unfair to call them untalented, but more-so unproven.  With just as unproven quarterbacks, it's gonna be a two-pronged effort at improving each position.  Top receivers returning from last year are Quinton Dunbar (1), Latroy Pittman (13), Andre Debose (4), and Frankie Hammond Jr (85).  All have incredible potential, but will have to vastly improve.  At tight end, expect a lot more of Jordan Reed (11).  The more interesting position is the back-up tight end role.  More offenses now a days are using multiple tight end sets and more tight end plays in general, making depth at tight end crucial.  With the departure of A.C. Leonard, a huge disparity is left between Reed and his supporters.  Look to see who steps up between Clay Burton (88) (yes, Trey's little brother) or maybe receiver-turned-tight end Omarius Hines (88), who was used sparingly last year in sweeps and other specialty plays.


Defense.  I can't hype this defense up enough.  It's a squad that's been slowly rebuilding since the 07-09 stellar club, and they're still young.  2011's defense ranked 8th nationally in total defense and that was with an injured Dominique Easley (2) and another "transition" at defensive minded head coach, Will Mushchamp, and defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn.  This year, the front line is healthy and don't forget that all three Easley, Omar Hunter, and Sharrif Floyd were all 5 star recruits.  The real storyline here is the injured Ronald Powell (7) at the hybrid defensive tackle/outside linebacker (buck) position.  He claims to be healthy and should return midseason.  His replacement Lerentee McCray (34) should do his part just fine, but remains a question mark comparatively.

Dominique Easley, and America

 Calling the linebackers solid would be an understatement.  If you've watched Gator football in the last two years you don't need to be told how good Jon Bostic (1) and Jelani Jenkins (3) are.  Chances are you'll hear one of their names being called after each tackle.  The weak link is Darrin Kitchens (49) who has had field time but was almost murdered against FSU last year.  He was the player who laid motionless on the field at the beginning of the second half and needed to be carted off.  He's fine now but will need to play well to stay out of the shadow of the other two linebackers.  The safety position is more than complete with Matt Elam (22) and Josh Evans (9), two players who shone as underclassmen and are now out of excuses to be anything short of All-Americans.  Matt Elam led the team in tackles for loss (11) last year complimenting 78 tackles and two interceptions.  Not on the depth chart is De'Ante "Pop" Saunders (26) who is nursing a hamstring injury and is scheduled to return by week 3.  Saunders led an impressive Freshman year with 28 tackles and 2 interceptions.  Cornerbacks are up in the air in competition between Marcus Roberson (5), Cody Riggs (31), Loucheiz Purifoy (15), and Jaylen Watkins (14).  Muschamp isn't too worried, planning on using all four in several nickel and dime packages.  My only point of concern with this defense was last year's lack of turnovers, with only 8 interceptions.

Caleb Sturgis

Caleb Sturgis.  Yes, he's still here.  Redshirt senior Caleb Sturgis (19) is probably the best kicker in the nation, if he can stay healthy, which has been an issue the last few years.  The Lou Groza Award finalist believes he can make anything within 60 yards, and I believe him.  What you need to really watch for is the implementation of the new kickoff rules and how they'll affect the game.  As of this season, like in the NFL, kick offs will be set up at the 35 yard line, but unlike the NFL, a touchback puts the ball at the 25 yard line.  This leaves very little incentive to return the ball, but a lot of incentive to change the way kickers kick the ball.  A team confident they can stop a returner before the 25 yard line may strategically try to place the ball inside the 5 yard line to give the returner some reason to catch and return it.  Depending on how Muschamp wants to experiment with these new rules, Sturgis may be asked to soften kickoffs.


Arnaldo's prediction:

Florida wins 45-6