The 2012 Buccaneers Season: What went wrong?

by Dub

After a heartbreaking but predictable thrashing loss to the Saints, we as Buccaneers fans are forced to start looking to next year for hope. Our team heated up early in the season, only to slide right back into mediocrity leaving us feeling sad and lost. As with every team, the off season is used to try and improve your team as much as possible through free agency, the NFL Draft, and current roster development/management.

It’s easy to look at our losses this season and see some of the things that plagued the Buccaneers, and turned what could have been a magical season into one focused on “just not losing”. Here is a short (and not all-inclusive) list of the bumps the Bucs hit throughout our season.

• Losing Da’quan Bowers to an Achilles Injury in May and placing Adrian Clayborn on the injured reserve in September.
• Losing both Davin Joseph and Carl Nicks (our Pro Bowl interior offensive linemen) to season-ending injuries.
• Trading the ever troubled Aqib Talib to the Patriots.
• Eric Wright getting suspended for violating the League’s Substance Abuse Policy.
• Losing Jeremy Trueblood and Quincy Black to injured reserve.

Such a beautiful sight, isn't it?

If you’re familiar with the Buccaneers’ roster and some of its impact players, you understand the gravity of the list above. Our very talented young team was decimated by injuries, and players who were specifically brought in to produce and contribute right away were sidelined, unable to prove their worth. Our first two picks in the 2011 NFL Draft were spent on the first two players listed: Bowers and Clayborn. A large contributing factor to our struggles this season have been a lack of consistent pass rush. Michael Bennett and Gerald McCoy have done their part in trying to get to the quarterback regularly but have been consistently drawing double teams. With the probable loss of Michael Bennett in Free Agency, it’s imperative the Buccaneers reexamine our defensive line and try to make a play at an experienced veteran.

Think of Dougie with 2 Pro bowlers
grading the road for him.

Our second huge hit was losing both Nicks and Joseph. These two formed arguably the NFL’s premier interior offensive line, and made the mouths of powerbacks everywhere water. Losing Joseph was deemed catastrophic in its own right, and with Nicks going down only weeks later, the offensive line woes didn’t improve. Following the loss of our guards, Jeremy Trueblood goes down for the season, so our hundred million dollar offensive line only has 2 of the starters from the beginning of the season playing. This can be remedied in the coming season by working to make sure our linemen are well conditioned and rehabbed from their injuries in 2012 and that our backups are well equipped to step in on day 1 and contribute.

Hey Eric, ask GMC about arm tackles.
I've heard they're super effective.

Our biggest hindrance throughout all of the 2012 season is one that we thought was being fixed. When the season was on the horizon, we just spent the 7th overall pick on Mark Barron, All American safety at Alabama. We moved cornerback Ronde Barber to safety to let him utilize his ever changing skillset, and we signed nickel corner Eric Wright to step up and play opposite Aqib Talib to form what could be one of the more formidable cornerback tandems in the NFL. Things were looking optimistic. Well as we all know, things don't always work out the way we want them to, and emergency action must be taken sometimes to make up for miscalculations during the offseason. One huge misstep was thinking that Aqib had cleaned up his act. After allowing opposing quarterbacks to shred him for yardage, and being caught for using adderall, the Bucs dumped Talib for not being one of Schiano's "Buccaneer Men." Then we lost Eric Wright, our very expensive free agent cornerback to the same allegations. Myron Lewis, La'quan Lewis, EJ Biggers, Leonard Johnson, and Anthony Gaitor have tried to fill in, but have so far been unable to stop a nosebleed. The amount of effort our secondary has sucked up is astounding, and for the past two seasons has been embarassing in comparison to our rock-steady run defense. Hopefully we can fill these needs through player development and off season acquisitions.

Hopefully some of these points have helped to clearly outline some of the biggest reasons the Buccaneers have played poorly to this point. While not at all detailing the coaching choices and possible morale-related issues, we wanted to make sure the personnel problems we encountered this season were brought to light so that other fans could have something to watch for the next two games and make their own judgement calls. We'd love to hear your feedback on the Bucs progress, and look forward to seeing how these holes are patched. After all, when you're at the bottom, there's nowhere to go but up.

Tampa Bay v. New Orleans

by John Michael

Downward spiral. After shocking the NFL with a four game winning streak, the Buccaneers have slipped in to an awful funk losing three straight games. Although each loss was close, as they all have this season, it must be noticed that all these losses were due to the Buccaneers struggle with finishing strong defensively in the second half. The passing defense has been the Achilles' heel for the Bucs all season, and that weakness has been exploited by opposing offenses as the Bucs have slipped out of playoff contention as quickly as they slipped into it.

I will admit, I am starting him in my
Fantasy League today.

It doesn't get much easier today, as the Bucs journey deep inside the Superdome in New Orleans to take on the always challenging Saints. The Saints have one of the top-ranked offenses in the league led by Drew Brees. The Saints are averaging almost 300 passing yards per game (2nd in the NFL) and almost 400 total offense per game (3rd in the NFL). But the weak spot for the Saints has been their defense, ranked dead last in the league allowing 436.9 yards per game with disastrous running and passing defense.

The last time these two teams met resulted in a thriller, with the game decided in the last second after a controversial call in the end zone against the Bucs. With both the Bucs and Saints in the middle of a three game losing streak, both teams desperately need a win. Here's how the Bucs find a win.

Keys to Victory

Slow down Drew Brees. Brees will be targeting the secondary as every opposing quarterback has done this season. He had tremendous success doing so earlier in the year, throwing for four touchdowns and 377 yards against the same Bucs defense. The passing defense needs to step it up all over the field, from winning in the trenches and forcing errors, to the secondary sticking to their assignments. But the best way to stop Brees is to not let him start, which falls in the next key.

That kid in that video has been doing the
Dougie better than Doug has recently.

Doug Martin. I have listed Martin as one of the Bucs' key weapons several times this season, and he is no less important today. New Orleans has the worst rushing defense in the league, and the only way the Bucs can slow down Brees and the New Orleans passing game is to keep it off the field and win the time of possession battle. Martin should run the ball quite a bit today and find success on the field that has been lacking for him in the past few weeks.

Freeman and Receivers. Like the last game, this game has the potential to become a shootout. Freeman needs to be able to answer Brees' production if the touchdowns start coming. Freeman had success against the Saints in the last game as well, throwing for 420 yards and three touchdowns while targeting Vincent Jackson, Dallas Clark, and Tiquan Underwood for scores. The question is, can he replicate that performance on the road?

My prediction before this season for the Bucs was a 9-7 record. After the winning streak, my expectations were higher, but this losing streak has taken the Bucs out of realistic contention for a playoff spot. However, with the Bucs at a 6-7 record, my prediction is still attainable. But it starts today with this tough road game. While the Bucs may have the edge in being able to stop the run, the Saints have the advantage in playing at home. I see this game coming down to the final seconds, just like last time, but I'm picking the Bucs to find a way in a close game.

John Michael's prediction:

Tampa Bay wins 38-35

'12-'13 Bowl Game Schedule

by Arnaldo

In similar fashion as last year, Bruce & Albert presents a comprehensive bowl schedule that's easy to read and all in one place. This year's is much higher resolution than last's so opening it will allow you to get close to each match-up. Save on your desktop, or print to keep up with all the games, which start tomorrow with the New Mexico Bowl! (To save, click on the picture to enlarge first, right click and save.)

Tampa Bay v. Philadelphia

by John Michael

Ronde Barber shutting down the Vet
in 2002.

History. It used to mean something whenever the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Philadelphia Eagles met on the gridiron, especially in the early 2000s. At that time, whenever the top teams were discussed in the NFC, the Eagles and the Bucs were always at the top of the list. That was no truer than in the most magical year in the history of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the year the Bucs won Super Bowl XXXVII. In the regular season, the Bucs played the Eagles in Philly in a losing effort, and the same Eagles were the only team standing in the way of the Bucs and a trip to San Diego in the NFC Championship. That game became one of the most legendary games in Buccaneers history, which bred a healthy rivalry between the Bucs and the Eagles.

Today, as Tampa celebrates the 10th anniversary of the team that won it all, these two teams meet again. The level of play is obviously not the same as it was ten years ago, but the rivalry remains. Today's teams, however are heading in opposite directions. The Eagles enter this game with a eight game losing streak and a 3-9 record. Their offense ranks 29th in the league in points scored, and their defense ranks 26th in points allowed. Philly is mired deep within a quarterback controversy between Michael Vick and Nick Foles, and Andy Reid is on the verge of losing his job. But the losses discount the talent on this team. Philly should be taken seriously as most of their losses have been close. But the team is still caught in a whirlwind, with little hope of finding their way out.

That seat feeling a little hot, coach?

The Bucs enter this game with a losing streak of their own. After winning four straight and shooting to the top of lists for potential playoff participants, the Bucs lost two straight to two of the top teams in the NFL. The Bucs must show today that they have the ability to recover from such a disappointing two weeks. The playoffs seem very distant now with the Seahawks taking a one game lead on the final spot, and the Bucs must play perfect football for the next four weeks to improve their chances. Here's how they start today.

Keys to Victory

Oh where, oh where has our little Doug gone?

Doug Martin. The Eagles rank in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed per game. In the losing streak, Martin has been almost non-existant after breaking out in the weeks before. The best way for the Bucs to get out of their losing streak is the same way they need to start a new winning streak: running the ball. Keeping the ball on the ground and pounding away at the Philadelphia defense will go far in determining the outcome of the game, keeping the time of possession in Tampa Bay's favor and, hopefully, the scoreboard.

Kneel downs? I don't understand...

Greg Schiano. The Bucs are a young team, and a two game losing streak is difficult to overcome this late in the season. The leadership starts at the top, and the top starts at Schiano. Schiano has already come far in changing the culture of the Buccaneers in his first year, but today's game provides the Head Coach a chance to grow the maturity of the team even more. The Bucs still have a lot to play for this season, and it's up to Coach Schiano to continue to remind them as such

Going against one of the worst teams in the league after facing one of the best teams the week before provides a chance for a let down. Especially if the Bucs are looking ahead to next weeks' divisional matchup on the road in New Orleans. But I believe that the talent of the Bucs is too good for the Eagles to pose any threat, especially late in the game. The Eagles may keep it close for a bit, but the Bucs offense rolls after a while and puts the game away early in the fourth.

John Michael's prediction:

Tampa Bay wins 38 - 21

Tampa Bay v. Denver

by John Michael

Heartbreak. Last week was a huge letdown for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After being the victors for four weeks, the Bucs faced the team with the best record in the NFC - the Atlanta Falcons. The Bucs failed to make a strong statement for the playoffs, unable to capitalize on numerous opportunities losing a close battle to the Falcons 24-23. But the Bucs aren't out of the hunt yet. Last week's loss dropped the Bucs down to a 6-5 record, still in contention for the final wildcard spot with the Seattle Seahawks, the Minnesota Vikings, and several other teams right behind them. With five games including today left to go in the season, this leaves little room for error for this young Buccaneers squad. And it does not get any easier today.

Also, former league MVP, Super Bowl Champion, Secretary of
Treasury, Backstreet Boy member, volunteer firefighter, etc.

Today, the Bucs go on the road to face one of the toughest teams in the league, the Denver Broncos (8-3). Led by former Indianapolis Colts quarterback, Peyton Manning, the Broncos have emerged as a possible contender to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. The Broncos rank fourth in the entire league in Offense and Defense, and fifth in passing yards per game with an average of 287.5. The Broncos defense ranks fifth and ninth in passing yards allowed and rushing yards allowed, respectively.  If the Bucs want to rebound after last week's heartbreaker, they'll have to earn it the hard way.

"You kids and your newfangled drugs..."

The Bucs didn't make things any easier for them this past week either. Already ranked dead last in the league in passing yards allowed, Tampa Bay lost one of their starting cornerbacks. Offseason free agent acquisition Eric Wright, following in the footsteps of another cornerback on the Bucs roster earlier this year, was suspended for the next four games for testing positive for Adderall without a prescription. This loss is a huge blow to the already struggling Buccaneers secondary. It will take a monumental effort to hold off Manning today in Denver. But this Buccaneers team has shown in recent weeks that it can hang with the best the NFL has to offer. Here's how the Bucs can pull out a victory today and stay at the front of the pack for the last playoff spot.


Keys to Victory

Here's hoping those weekly chats with Warren Sapp
start paying off.

Get to Peyton Manning. Manning will be throwing the ball a lot today. And who can blame him? Denver is a pass happy team, and Tampa Bay has yet to prove that it can stop the pass. And with the Bucs secondary starting two backups at the corners, you can bet that passing is a huge part of Denver's gameplan today. The secondary will need a lot of help from up front. It's up to Gerald McCoy, Michael Bennett, and the rest of the front seven to put significant pressure on Manning, forcing him into making mistakes. Allowing Manning time in the pocket to find Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker will be disastrous for Tampa Bay.

Please, Josh. Please.

Josh Freeman. This is the type of game where Freeman's skill set will be the most important item for the Bucs to leave the field with a "W". Freeman has shown that this offense is capable of having huge days when he is locked in with his top receivers, Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams. Doug Martin may find his role reduced to pass blocking and receiving in the flats if this game turns into a shootout with Peyton Manning. Every time Manning finds a way to put points on the board, Freeman must find a way to answer. Unfortunately for Freeman, he will have to do it against one of the top passing defenses in the league.

No, I'm not proud of highlighting a former 'Nole on this
blog. But sometimes it has to be done.

Special Teams. If this game turns into a shootout, the difference maker between winning and losing falls on the special teams. Connor Barth has been reliable this season, hitting 80% of his field goal attempts and being perfect on extra point attempt, and Michael Koenen has been successful in the punting game averaging about 45 yards per punt. These will all come in handy in the ever important battle over field position. Dekoda Watson will be needed as well. Named the NFC Special Teams player for the month of November, Watson blocked a punt and recovered a fumble on special teams. It will be hard for the Bucs to find turnovers against Peyton Manning, so forcing them in the special teams game will be crucial.

This game is probably the worst case scenario for a team looking to rebound after a close loss to a divisional opponent. Especially if that team has the worst passing defense in the NFL. While I want to be optimistic and point out the talent that the Buccaneers have, I can't point out one matchup where the Buccaneers have a distinct advantage. I believe that the Bucs have too much talent to not have any hope, but Manning and the Broncos prove that they are a force to be reckoned with in the AFC and pull away in the 2nd half to drop the Bucs back down to .500 and dimmer playoff hopes.


John Michael's prediction:

Tampa Bay loses 38 - 28

BCS Bowl Projections

 by Arnaldo

Bowl predictions are pointless. You could, and really should, just wait a few weeks until everything plays out and see who goes where.  But by that same token, what's the point in preseason rankings, or picking games, or even having any sort of fun?  A week ago the BCS was shaken up when the top two teams (Kansas State and Oregon) fell and Notre Dame inched its way to the top spot before its season closer against unranked (and preseason No. 1) Southern California last night, as all of Gainesville, FL and Eugene, OR watched in agony as the Irish skimmed by a slightly confused Lane Kiffin.

So, mostly for fun, Bruce & Albert are here to explain bowl game selection and predict the BCS bowl games.  There are actually volumes of little known rules on who can receive and who can't receive and who will receive despite not deserving, BCS bowl bids.  In essence there are four BCS bowls taken from four of the oldest bowl games, the Rose Bowl, the Sugar Bowl, the Orange Bowl, and the Fiesta Bowl.  As I explained a year ago around this time, each bowl has conference tie-ins it likes to honor for tradition sake.

For example, the Rose Bowl (the original bowl game) set out to create an exhibition for a west coast team and a team from east of the Mississippi.  So they invited undefeated (not even scored upon) Michigan to play Stanford.  The game was called by mercy at the third quarter when Michigan was up 49-0.  The Tournament of Roses was so upset they considered the game a failure and didn't try again for fourteen years.  Because of the tie-ins and tradition, but also the need to pit the top two teams together, a fifth game was established in 2006 as the stand-alone National Championship, whose location was rotated through the four BCS sites.  The bowls' tie-ins are as follows:

BCS National Championship - No. 1 v. No. 2
Rose Bowl - Pac-12 champion v. Big 10 champion
Sugar Bowl - SEC champion v. At-Large
Orange Bowl - ACC champion v. At-Large
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 champion v. At-Large

The conferences are interesting because six of them are automatic qualifying (AQ) conferences.  This is to prevent a successful team from a weak conference from appearing better than a losing (but better) team from a tougher conference, so that the weaker team isn't rewarded for beating bad teams.  The six AQ conferences are the ones listed plus the Big East.  The Big East really gets a pass from their basketball dominance.  The NCAA almost assumes that if the schools have the resources for good basketball, then they should eventually have good football as well, right?  The truth of the matter is that the Big East doesn't deserve an AQ spot but as a founding member of the BCS, what can you do?  The Big East champion takes one of the three at-large spots and the other two are left for actual at-large teams, a wildcard if you will.

The volumes of rules basically go towards picking these two teams.  The most notable of which are the "Notre Dame rule" which allows one independent school (but realistically, only Notre Dame) a BCS spot if it finishes in the top 8, and the "SEC rule" which limits the amount of teams allowed in BCS bowls to two, including one in a national championship.  The exception to this rule would be if both teams playing for a national championship were of the same conference and neither were the conference champion, then the conference champion would still go to the Sugar Bowl.  That seems like a stretch but isn't at all impossible, especially with today's dominance of the SEC.  Imagine for example, that Alabama had lost to Auburn, Georgia had lost to Georgia Tech, and some other teams also lost putting LSU closer to Florida, the winner of the SEC championship would end up below LSU and Florida, who in this hypothetical scenario, would be playing for a title.  The BCS would be forced to let that team in the Sugar Bowl, a third SEC team.  I take it back, that would be incredibly unlikely.  Still, the rule has its largest effect this season with six out of the fourteen SEC schools ranked just in the top 10 (assuming South Carolina will move to No. 10 after the FSU and Clemson losses).  Because of this, several teams ranked far below LSU, Alabama/Georgia loser, Texas A&M, and South Carolina will be in BCS games while they're left out.

Now let's look at each AQ conference standings.  Division champions are chosen by their conference records, regardless of overall records.  The division champions play each other in their conference championship game if their conference has 12 or more schools.  If they have fewer, there are no divisions and the team with the best conference record is the champion.  Interestingly this year, a large number of division and conference champions are not the highest ranked or the best in their standings due to their overall record or because the actual leader is ineligible.  Let's start with the Big East and move our way up.


The Big East suffered a loss last season and is down to just eight schools. Again, twelve is the minimum required to host a conference championship game. So the top team in their own conference standings (not actual standings) will be crowned the champion. The Big East actually hasn't finished conference play but conveniently, the top two teams, Rutgers (9-2, 5-1) and Louisville (9-2, 4-2), play each other this weekend in a de facto conference championship. Though they share the 9-2 overall record, Rutgers leads in the conference with the better conference record. If Louisville wins, however, they will tie at 5-2 and hold the tiebreaker having won a head-to-head game, hence the winner-take-all scenario.

The Atlantic Coastal Conference is broken up into two divisions, Atlantic and Coastal. Florida State (10-2, 7-1) and Clemson (10-2, 7-1) are tied for the lead of the Atlantic, but FSU beat Clemson head-to-head, giving them the tiebreaker. FSU will play the Coastal "champion" Georgia Tech (6-6, 5-3) who is actually third in the Coastal division behind North Carolina and Miami, both of whom are ineligible for conference championships as well as bowl games due to NCAA sanctions. All signs point to the Seminoles wrapping this one up, but a win by Georgia Tech will shake up the BCS, forcing a likely unranked team into the Orange Bowl.


The Big 10 expanded to 12 teams effective last season allowing them to host a conference championship game with their two divisions, Leaders and Legends.  Don't call it tacky, they don't like that. Nebraska (10-2, 7-1) is the undisputed leader of the Legends division while in similar fashion to the ACC Coastal, the top two teams in the Leaders division, Ohio State (10-2, 7-1) and Penn State (8-4, 6-2) are ineligible of any postseason play. This thrusts Wisconsin (7-5, 4-4) into the Big 10 championship game.  A upset win by the Badgers will force them into the Rose Bowl, also most likely ranked very low, or unranked.


The Big 12 on the other hand has made do with 10 teams for these two seasons, leaving them with no divisions or championship game.  The co-champions are Kansas State (10-1, 7-1) and Oklahoma (9-2, 7-1), with the tiebreaker going to Kansas State, who beat Oklahoma head-to-head early in the season.

The Pac-12 recently also expanded to allow a conference championship game and two divisions, North and South.  At the helm of the North division is Stanford (10-2, 8-1) who neither has the best record nor the highest rank in the Pac-12.  That distinction goes to Oregon (11-1, 8-1) who lost its tie-breaking head-to-head game against Stanford last week.  Stanford will play UCLA (9-3, 6-3) in their championship game next week. 

Finally, the Southeastern Conference.  The SEC is really its own worst enemy.  The BCS is designed to promote equality across the board.  Then the SEC went and became the single most dominant conference in college football since the days of the Ivy League, going six for six in National Championships and littering the BCS standings with half its teams.  Computers will tell you that some weeks the Big 12 is the best conference in the FBS.  This is really only because the members of the SEC have to play themselves.  There have to be losers.  Nothing is more evident this year with the recent firings of Kentucky head coach, Joker Phillips, Tennessee head coach, Derek Dooley, and probable firing of Auburn head coach, Gene Chizik*.  The worst SEC teams are still winning most of their non-conference games.  They just have no option but to lose to the best SEC teams.  And those teams are only losing to each other.  Texas A&M only lost to LSU and Florida.  LSU only lost to Alabama and Florida.  Florida only lost to Georgia.  Georgia only lost to South Carolina.  South Carolina only lost to Florida and LSU.  Alabama only lost to Texas A&M.  It's tough to really pick a victor out of this rock-paper-scissors-like stalemate but the fact of the matter remains that while the best teams in the nation beat themselves up, teams like Notre Dame, Kansas State, Oregon and Ohio State are sneaking through with perfect and near-perfect records because they don't have to play each other, or any of the SEC.  Just a few weeks ago, it appeared as if the SEC wouldn't have any representation in the National Championship because they all beat themselves.  Professional sports would realign the conferences to redistribute the strength (see Major League Baseball), but with over 120 FBS programs and over 100 years of tradition, this idea becomes unimaginable.

*Gene Chizik was officially fired minutes after this entry was posted.

The actual conference realignment just made it worse; this year's Texas A&M squad would go undefeated had they stayed in the Big 12.  The college football world almost imploded on itself when their own fair system put two SEC teams in the national championship, who had already played each other, though the Alabama blowout legitimized its own necessity.  This year's season was one Notre Dame loss away from Florida facing the SEC champion at the National Championship in a repeat of last year.  Depending on how the upcoming four team playoff works, we may still have all-SEC National Championships, despite an even more "fair" system.  The SEC isn't going away and it's time the world gets used to it, but back to the current SEC standings.

The SEC is broken up into two divisions, East and West, and invented the now problematic conference championship game in 1992.  No. 2 Alabama (11-1, 7-1) leads the West indisputably while No. 3 Georgia (11-1, 7-1) is tied for co-champion of the East with No. 4 Florida (11-1, 7-1). Georgia won its head-to-head against Florida for the tie-breaker, however (in case anyone's forgotten).  Once again, though each of the three teams leading the SEC in standings are all tied, the provision of an extra game will provide one team with an extra loss and another with essentially a bye into the bowl season.  With each of the three teams ranked in the top 4, the winner of the SEC championship game will go on to the National Championship while the loser will be jumped by Florida to secure a No. 3 ranking and a Sugar Bowl appearance.  Going down the current BCS standings will show how the rest of the SEC is being snubbed out of BCS bowls by lower ranked non-SEC teams.  No 7. LSU (who will likely finish No. 6 over the Alabama-Georgia loser), No. 9 Texas A&M, who may also make a move, No. 12 South Carolina, who should finish at No. 10, add up to four top ten teams who will not appear in BCS bowls.  It's about time we redefine "fair" and just let the SEC take over.

All things considered, the final BCS Bowls should look something like this (BCS rankings are also projected):

Tampa Bay v. Atlanta

by John Michael

Playoffs?! You kidding me?

Statement Game. This is it. This is the game the Bucs have been waiting for. After starting 1-3, the Bucs have fought back to 6-4, winning four straight while putting on the best offensive show in franchise history. The Bucs' newfound swagger has caught the eye of even more experts and analysts across the nation, some even using the "p-word" when discussing Tampa Bay's post-season. But despite the recent success, the Bucs have yet to claim that signature win to prove that they truly belong among the top teams in the league this year. This week's game provides that opportunity.

Head coach Steve Martin Mike Smith applauding his Falcon's effort

Into town this week comes the Dirty Birds. The Dixie Chicks. The current number one seed in the NFC, and huge division rivals. The Atlanta Falcons. This is the first meeting of two between these two teams, and a matchup that many in the Bay Area have been looking forward to for weeks. The Matt Ryan-led Atlanta Falcons have clawed their way to an impressive 9-1 record, their only blemish coming against a resurgent New Orleans Saints team. While most point out that the games the Falcons have won were very close, and that they're fortunate to only have one loss, the fact remains that the Falcons have found a way to win those close games. Their record has been well deserved. But these close games can easily spin out of the Falcons' favor in a hurry, which is what the Bucs are aiming for today. A Buccaneers win would be huge not only for the franchise, but for the NFC playoff picture as a whole. The Bucs would stay right in the mix for a wildcard spot, while the Falcons would fall to only having a two game lead over the Bucs with five games (and one against the Bucs) to go. And with the 49ers breathing down the Falcons' necks for that number one spot, anything could happen to the Falcons under pressure.

But all of these possibilities start on the field at Raymond James Stadium today. Should the Bucs lose, the playoffs might be just out of reach. This statement game is as close to must-win game as it gets for Tampa Bay. Here's how they win.


Keys to Victory


Doug Martin. One of the weakest spots of the Atlanta Falcons is their run defense, which ranks 26th in the league allowing 130.5 yards per game. Martin had better be ready to play. The biggest offensive days for the Bucs lately have depended on establishing a strong running game early. Pulling off the upset on the Falcons will be a lot easier if Martin can get rolling early. On paper, Martin looks to have a great day on the ground. On the field? We'll see at 1 PM.

Here they come.

Limit Matt Ryan. Much like the Bucs, the Falcons have been thriving because of their offense. While their running game (28th in the league in rushing yards) leaves much to be desired, and should not be much of a factor against the Bucs' top ranked rushing defense, Atlanta's passing game is ranked fourth in the league. The Bucs' 32nd ranked passing defense may be in for a long day against the tandem of Matt Ryan and his top receivers, Roddy White and Julio Jones. Because of the Falcon's lack of a consistent running game, Ryan will without a doubt be targeting these two deep in the Bucs' secondary early and often. The key is to bend but not break, and create turnovers. Last week, the Falcons were fortunate enough to gain a victory against the Chiefs despite Ryan throwing a career high 5 interceptions. Should the Bucs have similar success in the turnover department, they need to capitalize.

Looking more like 2010 every week.

Josh Freeman. Last week was not one of Josh Freeman's greatest games. Freeman threw for two picks at very inopportune times, and the the Bucs' trailed by 11 with about six minutes left in the game. But this is when Josh Freeman emerged as a leader of this young Buccaneers offense. In the final six minutes, Freeman was almost perfect, throwing the game-tying touchdown and two point conversion in the final seconds, capping it off with a phenomenal strike to Dallas Clark to clinch the road victory in overtime. The Bucs need Freeman to be that leader against the Falcons. Should the Bucs fall behind early, Freeman must put on an even more impressive performance than last week. He must make the right decisions and keep the ball out of the hands of Atlanta defenders, and Matt Ryan off the field. It will be up to Freeman if it comes down to the fourth quarter again, which is where Atlanta thrives.

If the Buccaneers pull out a victory today, it will send shock waves across the NFL. The Bucs will finally prove they belong and are a force to be reckoned with in the NFC South. The Bucs are quietly dangerous, and a game like this will finally get the attention of every team left on their schedule. Atlanta will keep it close as they have with every team this year, but I believe that the Bucs will have what it takes to pull off the upset in the final quarter. Then, the pressure is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from here until the end.

John Michael's prediction:

Tampa Bay wins 27 -24

Florida v. Florida State

by Arnaldo

The State of Florida. The proverbial breeding ground for some of the best football in the country. Winning the state of Florida means a lot, and ever since the early '90s, it's been between Florida and Florida State. Each team typically ranked in the top 10 and chasing the opportunity to play for a National Championship. While the last few years have been lackluster, it's certainly back this year. Both teams are 10-1 as Florida is ranked at No. 4 and Florida State at No. 10. And similar to the '90s, each team stands in the others chance for a national title. For Florida State, a win over a BCS No. 4 team would definitely propel them into voter consideration but would need lots of help. Top ranked Notre Dame would need to lose at the hands of Southern California and some more movement in the top 10 would be necessary. For Florida at No. 4, it's a bit simpler. No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Georiga are facing each other at the SEC Championship so one will lose. The victor, assuming a victory at their season closer (Auburn and Georgia Tech, respectively) would assure themselves a spot in Miami for the title game against Notre Dame. If USC beats the Irish, however, which they have 9 out of the last 10 years, and Florida beats Florida State, Florida would move to No. 2 once again and play the SEC champion in a 2011 repeat all-SEC National Championship.

"... Quack?"

It seems bizarre that Florida is even in contention for a National Championship, who can't seem to find a way to move the ball since the LSU game. We're here because then No. 1 Kansas State lost handily to unranked Baylor while No. 2 Oregon simultaneously went down to Stanford in overtime. In reality, Florida might be one of the lesser deserving one-loss teams for a shot at the title. The Gators struggle moving the ball in the air and recently, also on the ground. What started as a very physical, very effective run first, play-action pass offense is now just desperate to move the chains.

Please lose....

A few weeks ago I had said I would rather Georgia go to the SEC Championship game against then-undefeated Alabama and have Florida spared from an extra loss to end up in a better bowl game, namely the Sugar Bowl.  I would have preferred this to any "shot" at an SEC title.  Things are a little different now and my philosophy has changed.  I would much rather go to a National Championship and lose than go to a Sugar Bowl and win.  It's the one time when the loser still gets some credit. Making it that far is a serious statement for a second year head coach like Will Muschamp, brought in to fill in huge shoes and restore Florida to its former elite status.


The Match-up




If you live in the state of Florida, hell, if you've heard of the state of Florida, you know how serious this game is. You're probably also aware that after going on a six game winning streak, the Seminoles are now streaking, having won the last two games.  Last year's was particularly messy.  No fan was proud to call themselves a Floridian.  It was the first time neither team was ranked coming into the game since 1986 and neither offense could produce.  The game eventually went to the team who turned the ball over less, and that was Florida State, who picked off John Brantley three times for four total turnovers and won 21-7 despite producing over 100 yards less than Florida.  This year may be a similar scenario, but with both teams in the top ten.  In order for the Gators to win, they need to go back to basics.  There's no reinventing this offense anymore; it's the last game of the season.  Instead it's time to play to our strengths, the strengths that got us here: run the ball consistently, play good defense, create turnovers, solid field position.

Jeff Driskel - He will play!  A lot of Gator fans were nervous when Driskel limped off the field two weeks ago against Louisiana-Lafayette, and scared when he didn't return against Jacksonville State.  He's 100% cleared and Muschamp claims he showed no limitations at practice.  Like I said, it's time to go back to basics.  The type of game play that got us victories against Texas A&M, LSU, and South Carolina.  Jeff Driskel doesn't need to pass the ball 30 times to win, but he needs to throw it enough to keep the defense honest.  When he doesn't make enough completions, defenses focus on our running attack and shut it down well enough.  A decent (not great) passing game and some occasional explosive plays (something the Gators have been lacking) will keep FSU on their heels, away from the line of scrimmage, where Mike Gillislee will find some running lanes.  Driskel just has to be smart with the ball, and do what he does best, extend plays with his arm and feet.

Defense - This game will mark the most impressive display of defense since the LSU game, so they say.  I'm not so sure.  While both rank in the nation's top five in defense, one really has to examine the level of competition.  Florida State has played one ranked team all season, then No. 10 Clemson.  The rest has been the weaker than usual ACC rift-raft.  The Gators have played four (five, considering Texas A&M was very prematurely unranked at the time) most of which have seen time in the top 10.  To me, the fact remains that the Seminole defense is severely less tested than the Gators' and it will show on Saturday.


Turnovers - Last year was really a battle for turnovers and Florida's four is what really sealed the game for the Seminoles.  A team like Florida thrives off turnovers, having been reluctant to really produce on offense alone.  This year, the Gators seem to have the edge at +13 against the Seminole's -2.  This is good considering the Seminoles have the edge on producing total yards.



E.J. Manuel - Has become the true leader of this team, trying to fill in big shoes left by Vikings starter Christian Ponder.  He's 23-5 in his second year and has already thrown for 2,785 yards, 21 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions.  Last year, however, the Gators defense held him to only 6 completions and 65 yards.  A similar shut down will almost guarantee a victory for the Gators if they can avoid the 4 turnovers that did us in.




Free Gilly - This season was marked for Mike Gillislee, and his (more realistic) goal of breaking 1000 yards is within reach, only 36 yards short.  A very reasonable task.  Really, in order to win, the Gators need to break down the Seminole defense by running the ball physically, similar to how they defeated the LSU and South Caroline defenses.  The o-line needs to toughen up, and hold their blocks for Gillislee to pound through.  Hope that Twitter explodes this Saturday with #FreeGilly everywhere.


Kick the Ball - In a defensive battle as we've seen time and time again this season, punting and kicking field goals are critical.  Leave it in the hands of Caleb Sturgis and Kyle Christy to continue their outstanding performances in order to win.  Also keep in mind, however, that while Sturgis is a Lou Groza Award finalist, so is FSU's Dustin Hopkins.


Arnaldo's prediction: 

Florida wins 24-17

Tampa Bay v. Carolina

by John Michael

Round Two. The Buccaneers played Carolina in Week One for what was then a surprising 16-10 win. Going into that game, expectations were low for the Buccaneers. The roster was one of the youngest in the league, after coming off a 4-12 season and starting fresh with a new Head Coach under Greg Schiano. All the questions focused on the upcoming season for the Bucs - How would they respond the the new regime put in place by Schiano? Is Josh Freeman really the answer for the Bucs at Quarterback? How would the big free-agent signings play out in Tampa Bay?

It's been tough not typing "Scam Newton" this whole time.

Meanwhile, the Panthers were coming off a year where their offensive power improved dramatically. In 2011, after a 2-14 finish in 2010, the Panthers finished with a 6-10 record behind the number one draft pick Cam Newton. The Panthers had the 7th ranked overall offense behind a powerful 3rd ranked running game under the three-way punch of Newton, Jonathan Dwyer, and DeAngelo Williams. In the last six games, the Panthers went 4-2 - including two wins against the Buccaneers. Needless to say, expectations were high at the start of the season for the 2012 Panthers and Cam Newton's sophomore season.

Fast-forward to Week 11. Going into today's game, the Bucs have one of the league's hottest offenses with Doug Martin's sensational season and Freeman coming into his own. They have won three straight while averaging 35.6 points per game since their bye-week. The last game against the Chargers was probably the most complete game the Bucs played this season, scoring on offense, defense, and (surprise!) special teams. While they have allowed the league worst passing yards per game, the defense has created turnovers in key spots so secure victories late. The Panthers are heading in the opposite direction. The high expectations surrounding Cam Newton heading into the season has translated into only two wins so far. Offensive numbers from last year are down - this year, they are ranked 27th in the league in total yards per game. But don't let the 2-7 record fool you, the Panthers are still a dangerous team. All but two of Carolina's losses were by single digits.


Keys to Victory

Doug E. Fresh. Douginator. Still not as good as Muscle Hamster

Let loose the Douggernaut. Carolina ranks 16th in the league in rush defense, allowing 113 yards per game on the ground. This may be a chance for Doug Martin to shine again. Establishing the run game early on in Carolina will open up the passing game for Josh Freeman later on in the match-up, and take a tremendous amount of time off the clock and away from Cam Newton. Today is shaping up to be another big day for Martin should the Buccaneers depleted Offensive Line hold up against the Carolina's defense.

Keep an eye on Cam. While Cam Newton hasn't been running all over defenses like last year, it doesn't mean that he can't accomplish it this year. The Bucs have the best rushing defense in the league so far, and they did well to contain Newton in Week One. Tampa Bay must contain Newton, forcing him to throw early and make mistakes. If Cam gets rolling early, however, it could be a long day for the Bucs' defense.

Just keep doing your thing, Leonard Johnson.

Turnovers. The Bucs have been playing with fire as of late, allowing large amounts of yards through the air but coming through with key turnovers. At the same time, Josh Freeman has decreased the turnovers on the offensive end. The Bucs need to keep this pace up, because these turnovers are the reason the Bucs have improved to 5-4 this season. Earlier in the season, the inability to create turnovers and finish games is what led to the 1-3 start. Win the turnover battle against Carolina, win the game.

If the Bucs have any desire to make the playoffs, it's games like today that the Bucs have to win. The schedule doesn't get much easier through the rest of the season, with games against the Broncos, Saints, and two against the Falcons coming up. With the Bucs trending up lately, and the under-perfoming of Carolina, I see much of the same for both teams in this match up. The Bucs continue to score points, and Carolina keeps it close until the end.

John Michael's prediction:

Tampa Bay wins 35 - 24

Florida v. Jacksonville State

by Arnaldo

Identity crisis.  The Gators have one, and at the worst possible time.  Playing down to their opponent last week, Florida escaped the upset in a nail-biter... against non-BCS Louisiana-Lafayette.  A loss would've destroyed the season.  It would've been the first loss to a non-BCS team since 1988 against Memphis State (what we would considered non-BCS since the BCS wasn't formed until 1998).  At the height of the Florida season the identity was clear: run the ball, play good defense.  It's a philosophy that's not circumstantial.  Will Muschamp likes it and is likely to keep implementing it throughout his tenure.  But the product on the field today can't find the first down marker.  A quarterback who still hasn't gotten comfortable in the pocket.  Receivers who can't shake off defenders to get open, and seem to always be in the wrong place at the wrong time.  A running back who made it on everyone's radars early and has subsequently been shut down.  A rattled and tired offensive line.

"IT'S THE RAGIN' CAJUNS!"

There's no magic cure at this point.  These are the cards we're dealt.  But a lot can be cleaned up.  Florida has shown what kind of team it can be.  That Texas A&M squad that dethroned No. 1 Alabama last week, was first beaten by Florida.  That powerful LSU rushing attack was held to 42 yards by Florida, while we ran the ball the last 17 of 18 plays to score twice.  Steve Spurrier's 9th ranked Gamecocks watched as we stole the ball four times to rack up 44 points.  Don't forget that the Gators can play.  The focus of this week should be execution, drive, and a way out of this rut.


The Match-up


It's pretty one sided.  I'm aware that I said the same thing about Missouri, only to later admit that they're a formidable SEC foe.  I'm aware that the following week I predicted a huge rout against Louisiana-Lafayette, calling it a cupcake match.  Admittedly, I am not wrong and the Gators' performance was an embarrassment.  However, Jacksonville State is an FCS team (Divison 1-AA).  It won't be impossible to lose, but it's incredibly unlikely.


Jacoby Brissett - It's official: Jeff Driskel will not play on Saturday.  Driskel sprained his right ankle last week on a short run in the third quarter while the Gators still led 13-10.  Brissett took over on a shaky start.  His first four throws included a near interception and two sacks, but he improved on the game-tying drive where he went three for three for 48 yards and a touchdown.  Will Muschamp's philosophy is "man down, man up" and it's no different at the quarterback position.  Both Will Muschamp and Brent Pease are very confident in Brissett's ability and don't look to change much for him at the helm.  “I still think we stay within our philosophy,’’ Pease said. “I think we’ve got a pretty good recipe. Is it totally what you want it to be in the big picture? No, there’s things we’ve got to improve on. There are pieces you can put in. I’m glad we’ve got two good [quarterbacks], three good ones."  Keep in mind that Driskel and Brissett's skillset vary but their talents are similar.  It wasn't until the end of the first game when a starter was chosen.  As high school prospects, Driskel was ranked the no. 1 quarterback while Brissett was close behind at no. 3.  Expect Brissett to lead the offense well while Driskel recovers for Florida State. 


Execution - A game like this one should be used to perfect the little things.  Route timing, ball exchanges, proper tackling, generally speaking: execution.  The Gators did not execute well against the Ragin' Cajuns.  Ten penalties for 79 yards almost sounds moderate for Florida, but they were costly and as always, completely unnecessary.  These included a Lerente McCray offsides on a third down that prevented a ULL punt and a Loucheiz Purifoy pass interference on another third down to grant the Ragin' Cajuns their touchdown drive.  Mental errors like Clay Burton's dropped end zone pass or Mike Gillislee's continued inability to break 80 yards rushing for the fifth consecutive game also require execution improvement.  If the Gators can't execute against the Jacksonville State Gamecocks this Saturday, executing against Florida State will be a nightmare. 

Marques Ivory (12)

Gamecocks - Sit back and prepare yourselves for a second round of inappropriate Gamecock jokes.  Jacksonville State University is located in Jacksonville, Alabama (in case you were mistaking them for JU down the road).  A small public institution that fields a middle-of-the-pack 6-4 Ohio Valley Conference FCS football team.  The Gamecocks do know how to move the ball.  They average 430.9 yards per game.  Quarterback Marques Ivory and receiver Allan Bonner shared a five-touchdown game earlier this season.  Keep in mind, however, this is against other FCS opponents.  Their only other FBS match-up this season was against Arkansas in a 49-24 loss, the very same Arkansas who is third to last in the SEC.


Receivers - Jordan Reed can't do it all.  Week in and week out, we expect somebody to stand out of this corps only to be let down.  Andre Debose might still be nursing a hyperextended knee and Soloman Patton's broken arm isn't healing any time soon.  Brissett will be looking for the same targets.  Seniors Frankie Hammond Jr and Omarius Hines have all the motivation in the world to go out strong in their last home game, while true freshmen Latroy Pittman and Raphael Andrades may have a lot to prove looking towards the future.


Senior Night - This Saturday marks the home closer at Florida Field for seniors to be recognized.  The names you've heard for the last four years, Xavier Nixon, Josh Evans, Jon Bostic, Nick Alajajian, Mike Gillislee, Omar Hunter, Lerente McCray, Omarius Hines, Frankie Hammond Jr., and Caleb Sturgis, among those you haven't, will all be delivering flowers to their parents and receiving their final ovations as Gators before the game.


Looking Ahead - It's no secret.  Florida State means A LOT to this team.  Jacksonville State is the last hurdle and real-game experience time for the Gators to work on the aforementioned execution woes.  A win against both teams would leave the Gators 11-1, tied for the best record in the SEC, and a sure lock at a BCS bowl game.  Not too shabby a second season for Will Mushcamp.  What lies between: execution.


Arnaldo's prediction:

Florida wins 45 - 6