Florida v. Florida State

by Arnaldo

The State of Florida. The proverbial breeding ground for some of the best football in the country. Winning the state of Florida means a lot, and ever since the early '90s, it's been between Florida and Florida State. Each team typically ranked in the top 10 and chasing the opportunity to play for a National Championship. While the last few years have been lackluster, it's certainly back this year. Both teams are 10-1 as Florida is ranked at No. 4 and Florida State at No. 10. And similar to the '90s, each team stands in the others chance for a national title. For Florida State, a win over a BCS No. 4 team would definitely propel them into voter consideration but would need lots of help. Top ranked Notre Dame would need to lose at the hands of Southern California and some more movement in the top 10 would be necessary. For Florida at No. 4, it's a bit simpler. No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Georiga are facing each other at the SEC Championship so one will lose. The victor, assuming a victory at their season closer (Auburn and Georgia Tech, respectively) would assure themselves a spot in Miami for the title game against Notre Dame. If USC beats the Irish, however, which they have 9 out of the last 10 years, and Florida beats Florida State, Florida would move to No. 2 once again and play the SEC champion in a 2011 repeat all-SEC National Championship.

"... Quack?"

It seems bizarre that Florida is even in contention for a National Championship, who can't seem to find a way to move the ball since the LSU game. We're here because then No. 1 Kansas State lost handily to unranked Baylor while No. 2 Oregon simultaneously went down to Stanford in overtime. In reality, Florida might be one of the lesser deserving one-loss teams for a shot at the title. The Gators struggle moving the ball in the air and recently, also on the ground. What started as a very physical, very effective run first, play-action pass offense is now just desperate to move the chains.

Please lose....

A few weeks ago I had said I would rather Georgia go to the SEC Championship game against then-undefeated Alabama and have Florida spared from an extra loss to end up in a better bowl game, namely the Sugar Bowl.  I would have preferred this to any "shot" at an SEC title.  Things are a little different now and my philosophy has changed.  I would much rather go to a National Championship and lose than go to a Sugar Bowl and win.  It's the one time when the loser still gets some credit. Making it that far is a serious statement for a second year head coach like Will Muschamp, brought in to fill in huge shoes and restore Florida to its former elite status.


The Match-up




If you live in the state of Florida, hell, if you've heard of the state of Florida, you know how serious this game is. You're probably also aware that after going on a six game winning streak, the Seminoles are now streaking, having won the last two games.  Last year's was particularly messy.  No fan was proud to call themselves a Floridian.  It was the first time neither team was ranked coming into the game since 1986 and neither offense could produce.  The game eventually went to the team who turned the ball over less, and that was Florida State, who picked off John Brantley three times for four total turnovers and won 21-7 despite producing over 100 yards less than Florida.  This year may be a similar scenario, but with both teams in the top ten.  In order for the Gators to win, they need to go back to basics.  There's no reinventing this offense anymore; it's the last game of the season.  Instead it's time to play to our strengths, the strengths that got us here: run the ball consistently, play good defense, create turnovers, solid field position.

Jeff Driskel - He will play!  A lot of Gator fans were nervous when Driskel limped off the field two weeks ago against Louisiana-Lafayette, and scared when he didn't return against Jacksonville State.  He's 100% cleared and Muschamp claims he showed no limitations at practice.  Like I said, it's time to go back to basics.  The type of game play that got us victories against Texas A&M, LSU, and South Carolina.  Jeff Driskel doesn't need to pass the ball 30 times to win, but he needs to throw it enough to keep the defense honest.  When he doesn't make enough completions, defenses focus on our running attack and shut it down well enough.  A decent (not great) passing game and some occasional explosive plays (something the Gators have been lacking) will keep FSU on their heels, away from the line of scrimmage, where Mike Gillislee will find some running lanes.  Driskel just has to be smart with the ball, and do what he does best, extend plays with his arm and feet.

Defense - This game will mark the most impressive display of defense since the LSU game, so they say.  I'm not so sure.  While both rank in the nation's top five in defense, one really has to examine the level of competition.  Florida State has played one ranked team all season, then No. 10 Clemson.  The rest has been the weaker than usual ACC rift-raft.  The Gators have played four (five, considering Texas A&M was very prematurely unranked at the time) most of which have seen time in the top 10.  To me, the fact remains that the Seminole defense is severely less tested than the Gators' and it will show on Saturday.


Turnovers - Last year was really a battle for turnovers and Florida's four is what really sealed the game for the Seminoles.  A team like Florida thrives off turnovers, having been reluctant to really produce on offense alone.  This year, the Gators seem to have the edge at +13 against the Seminole's -2.  This is good considering the Seminoles have the edge on producing total yards.



E.J. Manuel - Has become the true leader of this team, trying to fill in big shoes left by Vikings starter Christian Ponder.  He's 23-5 in his second year and has already thrown for 2,785 yards, 21 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions.  Last year, however, the Gators defense held him to only 6 completions and 65 yards.  A similar shut down will almost guarantee a victory for the Gators if they can avoid the 4 turnovers that did us in.




Free Gilly - This season was marked for Mike Gillislee, and his (more realistic) goal of breaking 1000 yards is within reach, only 36 yards short.  A very reasonable task.  Really, in order to win, the Gators need to break down the Seminole defense by running the ball physically, similar to how they defeated the LSU and South Caroline defenses.  The o-line needs to toughen up, and hold their blocks for Gillislee to pound through.  Hope that Twitter explodes this Saturday with #FreeGilly everywhere.


Kick the Ball - In a defensive battle as we've seen time and time again this season, punting and kicking field goals are critical.  Leave it in the hands of Caleb Sturgis and Kyle Christy to continue their outstanding performances in order to win.  Also keep in mind, however, that while Sturgis is a Lou Groza Award finalist, so is FSU's Dustin Hopkins.


Arnaldo's prediction: 

Florida wins 24-17