BCS National Championship: Louisiana State University v. University of Alabama

by Arnaldo

It's the "Rematch" of the "Game of the Century"!  What more could you want out of a National Championship?

Funny to ask since a large minority of pundits and fans would rather see Les Miles' old team, Oklahoma State, try their best against his new team, LSU, but that's behind us so let's focus on the match-up at hand: Nick Saban's old team, LSU, against his new team, Alabama (see what I did there?).  We haven't seen a rematch in the title game since 1996 when Florida beat Florida State, who had previously lost to FSU at the end of the regular season.  That game should inspire hope, in the days before the big game, that we should see the best game college football has to offer, and that anything can happen.  As for the coaches, there's plenty of talent on both sides.  Nick Saban has won two titles with LSU and Alabama, and Les Miles was here four years ago with LSU.

"Umm . . . Awkward?"

Round I: FIGHT!


So how should this game play out?  Well luckily we already saw these teams duke it out.  First of all, let me just say, that game was not boring.  I mean, you may have been bored watching it, but there's nothing boring about a stalemate, the culmination of solid, mistake-free, perfectly coached football.  For most teams, there's a looseness about calling and executing plays when a team usually has a go-to play with a high rate of success.  This wasn't that.  This was 60 minutes of high tension and insurmountable anxiety.  Neither coach could call the wrong play; neither group of players could make a single mistake, the other team would capitalize.  When you have two teams with great offenses but phenomenal defenses, this is the type of game you're gonna see.


Round II:  FIGHT!

For those of you who did think the first match up was boring, you should be pleasantly surprised with this National Championship game.  There should be more scoring this time.  These teams have an advantage most college football teams never have: extensive experience against each other.  Watching film on your opponent's last match up is one thing; having actual experience is a whole 'nother game.  These coaches have footage on how exactly each player should match up against their assignment.  They don't have to estimate how to give their offensive/defensive line the edge, they don't have to look at 40-times to match up receivers on defensive backs.  They were already there.  Unlike the NFL, college teams very rarely play each other more than once, and players are constantly moving around; having actual field time against the opponent is a Christmas gift neither Nick Saban nor Les Miles will take for granted.  This should translate to slightly more success on offense for both teams.  Look at the NFL where teams have to play their three divisional rivals twice per season.  Nine out of ten times, the second game will be higher scoring than the first.  Each team will be more confident on the success of their plays and will be a bit more liberal with their play-calling.  Expect to see a few more long passes and at least two more touchdowns than before.

On the opposite side of the coin, each coaching staff knows what the other team is studying, and know what didn't work the first time around.  As a result, expect plays, coverages, and especially blitzes you've never seen from each team before.


Keys to Victory


For LSU, it's one word: consistency.  Les Miles prides himself on consistency, but something is getting lost in translation.  LSU is undefeated because of three things: near-perfect defense, near-perfect special teams, and a stellar offensive line, but LSU is not a perfect team.  There is a severe lack of consistency in the offense, namely the skill positions.  They're quick fix has been their depth.  Two quarterbacks (though expect much more, if not all Jordan Jefferson over Jarret Lee), five runningbacks, constantly in rotation.  When one guy drops the ball (both literally and metaphorically) Miles just sends in his replacement.  It's like covering holes with duct tape; it's not a real fix.

CB Tyrann Mathieu

As an offense, LSU is hot and cold.  They've gotten away with being so inconsistent because the defense gives them infinite opportunities and their special teams gives them favorable field position, or touchdown returns.  The problem is that eventually, and against the top defense in all major categories in Alabama, all cylinders have to click, or the entire game will break apart.  They beat Alabama the first time because they were hot.  Against Georgia, they were cold.  The first half of the SEC Championship game saw an LSU offense that could produce zero first downs and -2 yards.  Now, Georgia's defense is good, but Alabama's is the best.  A performance like that will not be forgiven next Monday and will result in a steady field position battle that Alabama can easily win.  Expect a good battle in the trenches between LSU's offensive line and Bama's defensive front.  LSU likes to run the ball a lot whether it's from the I to Singleback and a good amount of spread option.  Either way, a strong (and always consistent) offensive line and five effective and healthy running backs will deliver a solid run game.  If LSU wins, however, the difference maker will be special teams.  With one of the best punters in the nation and definitely the best punt returner in the nation (Tyrann Mathieu), LSU's special teams has the ability to inch their team closer to the endzone on each possession transition.  Make no mistake, the field position battle will be THE most important in this game.


For Alabama, it all goes back to Nick Saban.  Love him or hate him, there's no smarter coach in football, and with him comes a big strategic advantage: his team didn't have to play on championship week and LSU's offensive holes were severely exposed against Georgia's defense in the first half.  You can bet Nick was licking his lips watching the golden footage while his team gets an extra week to rest.  Alabama needs to limit Jordan Jefferson to either the pass or run game.  Alabama's defense is first in every major category so it should be pretty easy to stop the weak passer.  With LSU focusing on their powerful run game, they'll need to use their outside option game to widen the box to set up good interior runs.  Alabama's only weakness is outside linebacker speed and defending the option (they allowed 307 run yards against the triple-option FCS Georgia Southern).  In their last meeting, LSU was very capable of moving the ball on outside speed options.  Look for Saban to keep his linebackers a little more spread out and prepared for outside options.  There may also be less use of a true Buck (hybrid linebacker/defensive end).  Either way, Saban will be out to turn LSU into a one-dimensional offense.  One-dimensional teams do not win against Nick Saban.

RB Trent Richardson

On offense, expect a lot, a lot, of Trent Richardson.  LSU may have a better offensive line, but not by much, and they don't have a Trent Richardson.  My personal pick for the Heisman, he's more than a runningback.  He's an all around athlete.  He's their leading rusher, obviously, with 1583 yards, but is also curiously Alabama's second highest receiver with 327 yards.  That's not a lot for a receiver, but having a do-it-all player on the field opens up all sorts of possibilities.  Throwing good screens, checkdowns, and underneath patterns to a talented runningback is like running a spread offense.  It'll force a defense to spread out into looser zones, and make bigger passing lanes for Marquis Maze, and also even more running lanes for Trent Richardson.  As I mentioned, special teams will play a huge part of this game and Alabama will be prepared.  They don't have the same return game as LSU, but they will be well prepared for Tyrann Mathieu and company.  On punts, look for Alabama to sacrifice punt blockers to suffocate Mathieu and force him to fair catch.

Arnaldo's prediction:

Alabama beats LSU 20-10