BCS Bowl Projections

 by Arnaldo

Bowl predictions are pointless. You could, and really should, just wait a few weeks until everything plays out and see who goes where.  But by that same token, what's the point in preseason rankings, or picking games, or even having any sort of fun?  A week ago the BCS was shaken up when the top two teams (Kansas State and Oregon) fell and Notre Dame inched its way to the top spot before its season closer against unranked (and preseason No. 1) Southern California last night, as all of Gainesville, FL and Eugene, OR watched in agony as the Irish skimmed by a slightly confused Lane Kiffin.

So, mostly for fun, Bruce & Albert are here to explain bowl game selection and predict the BCS bowl games.  There are actually volumes of little known rules on who can receive and who can't receive and who will receive despite not deserving, BCS bowl bids.  In essence there are four BCS bowls taken from four of the oldest bowl games, the Rose Bowl, the Sugar Bowl, the Orange Bowl, and the Fiesta Bowl.  As I explained a year ago around this time, each bowl has conference tie-ins it likes to honor for tradition sake.

For example, the Rose Bowl (the original bowl game) set out to create an exhibition for a west coast team and a team from east of the Mississippi.  So they invited undefeated (not even scored upon) Michigan to play Stanford.  The game was called by mercy at the third quarter when Michigan was up 49-0.  The Tournament of Roses was so upset they considered the game a failure and didn't try again for fourteen years.  Because of the tie-ins and tradition, but also the need to pit the top two teams together, a fifth game was established in 2006 as the stand-alone National Championship, whose location was rotated through the four BCS sites.  The bowls' tie-ins are as follows:

BCS National Championship - No. 1 v. No. 2
Rose Bowl - Pac-12 champion v. Big 10 champion
Sugar Bowl - SEC champion v. At-Large
Orange Bowl - ACC champion v. At-Large
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 champion v. At-Large

The conferences are interesting because six of them are automatic qualifying (AQ) conferences.  This is to prevent a successful team from a weak conference from appearing better than a losing (but better) team from a tougher conference, so that the weaker team isn't rewarded for beating bad teams.  The six AQ conferences are the ones listed plus the Big East.  The Big East really gets a pass from their basketball dominance.  The NCAA almost assumes that if the schools have the resources for good basketball, then they should eventually have good football as well, right?  The truth of the matter is that the Big East doesn't deserve an AQ spot but as a founding member of the BCS, what can you do?  The Big East champion takes one of the three at-large spots and the other two are left for actual at-large teams, a wildcard if you will.

The volumes of rules basically go towards picking these two teams.  The most notable of which are the "Notre Dame rule" which allows one independent school (but realistically, only Notre Dame) a BCS spot if it finishes in the top 8, and the "SEC rule" which limits the amount of teams allowed in BCS bowls to two, including one in a national championship.  The exception to this rule would be if both teams playing for a national championship were of the same conference and neither were the conference champion, then the conference champion would still go to the Sugar Bowl.  That seems like a stretch but isn't at all impossible, especially with today's dominance of the SEC.  Imagine for example, that Alabama had lost to Auburn, Georgia had lost to Georgia Tech, and some other teams also lost putting LSU closer to Florida, the winner of the SEC championship would end up below LSU and Florida, who in this hypothetical scenario, would be playing for a title.  The BCS would be forced to let that team in the Sugar Bowl, a third SEC team.  I take it back, that would be incredibly unlikely.  Still, the rule has its largest effect this season with six out of the fourteen SEC schools ranked just in the top 10 (assuming South Carolina will move to No. 10 after the FSU and Clemson losses).  Because of this, several teams ranked far below LSU, Alabama/Georgia loser, Texas A&M, and South Carolina will be in BCS games while they're left out.

Now let's look at each AQ conference standings.  Division champions are chosen by their conference records, regardless of overall records.  The division champions play each other in their conference championship game if their conference has 12 or more schools.  If they have fewer, there are no divisions and the team with the best conference record is the champion.  Interestingly this year, a large number of division and conference champions are not the highest ranked or the best in their standings due to their overall record or because the actual leader is ineligible.  Let's start with the Big East and move our way up.


The Big East suffered a loss last season and is down to just eight schools. Again, twelve is the minimum required to host a conference championship game. So the top team in their own conference standings (not actual standings) will be crowned the champion. The Big East actually hasn't finished conference play but conveniently, the top two teams, Rutgers (9-2, 5-1) and Louisville (9-2, 4-2), play each other this weekend in a de facto conference championship. Though they share the 9-2 overall record, Rutgers leads in the conference with the better conference record. If Louisville wins, however, they will tie at 5-2 and hold the tiebreaker having won a head-to-head game, hence the winner-take-all scenario.

The Atlantic Coastal Conference is broken up into two divisions, Atlantic and Coastal. Florida State (10-2, 7-1) and Clemson (10-2, 7-1) are tied for the lead of the Atlantic, but FSU beat Clemson head-to-head, giving them the tiebreaker. FSU will play the Coastal "champion" Georgia Tech (6-6, 5-3) who is actually third in the Coastal division behind North Carolina and Miami, both of whom are ineligible for conference championships as well as bowl games due to NCAA sanctions. All signs point to the Seminoles wrapping this one up, but a win by Georgia Tech will shake up the BCS, forcing a likely unranked team into the Orange Bowl.


The Big 10 expanded to 12 teams effective last season allowing them to host a conference championship game with their two divisions, Leaders and Legends.  Don't call it tacky, they don't like that. Nebraska (10-2, 7-1) is the undisputed leader of the Legends division while in similar fashion to the ACC Coastal, the top two teams in the Leaders division, Ohio State (10-2, 7-1) and Penn State (8-4, 6-2) are ineligible of any postseason play. This thrusts Wisconsin (7-5, 4-4) into the Big 10 championship game.  A upset win by the Badgers will force them into the Rose Bowl, also most likely ranked very low, or unranked.


The Big 12 on the other hand has made do with 10 teams for these two seasons, leaving them with no divisions or championship game.  The co-champions are Kansas State (10-1, 7-1) and Oklahoma (9-2, 7-1), with the tiebreaker going to Kansas State, who beat Oklahoma head-to-head early in the season.

The Pac-12 recently also expanded to allow a conference championship game and two divisions, North and South.  At the helm of the North division is Stanford (10-2, 8-1) who neither has the best record nor the highest rank in the Pac-12.  That distinction goes to Oregon (11-1, 8-1) who lost its tie-breaking head-to-head game against Stanford last week.  Stanford will play UCLA (9-3, 6-3) in their championship game next week. 

Finally, the Southeastern Conference.  The SEC is really its own worst enemy.  The BCS is designed to promote equality across the board.  Then the SEC went and became the single most dominant conference in college football since the days of the Ivy League, going six for six in National Championships and littering the BCS standings with half its teams.  Computers will tell you that some weeks the Big 12 is the best conference in the FBS.  This is really only because the members of the SEC have to play themselves.  There have to be losers.  Nothing is more evident this year with the recent firings of Kentucky head coach, Joker Phillips, Tennessee head coach, Derek Dooley, and probable firing of Auburn head coach, Gene Chizik*.  The worst SEC teams are still winning most of their non-conference games.  They just have no option but to lose to the best SEC teams.  And those teams are only losing to each other.  Texas A&M only lost to LSU and Florida.  LSU only lost to Alabama and Florida.  Florida only lost to Georgia.  Georgia only lost to South Carolina.  South Carolina only lost to Florida and LSU.  Alabama only lost to Texas A&M.  It's tough to really pick a victor out of this rock-paper-scissors-like stalemate but the fact of the matter remains that while the best teams in the nation beat themselves up, teams like Notre Dame, Kansas State, Oregon and Ohio State are sneaking through with perfect and near-perfect records because they don't have to play each other, or any of the SEC.  Just a few weeks ago, it appeared as if the SEC wouldn't have any representation in the National Championship because they all beat themselves.  Professional sports would realign the conferences to redistribute the strength (see Major League Baseball), but with over 120 FBS programs and over 100 years of tradition, this idea becomes unimaginable.

*Gene Chizik was officially fired minutes after this entry was posted.

The actual conference realignment just made it worse; this year's Texas A&M squad would go undefeated had they stayed in the Big 12.  The college football world almost imploded on itself when their own fair system put two SEC teams in the national championship, who had already played each other, though the Alabama blowout legitimized its own necessity.  This year's season was one Notre Dame loss away from Florida facing the SEC champion at the National Championship in a repeat of last year.  Depending on how the upcoming four team playoff works, we may still have all-SEC National Championships, despite an even more "fair" system.  The SEC isn't going away and it's time the world gets used to it, but back to the current SEC standings.

The SEC is broken up into two divisions, East and West, and invented the now problematic conference championship game in 1992.  No. 2 Alabama (11-1, 7-1) leads the West indisputably while No. 3 Georgia (11-1, 7-1) is tied for co-champion of the East with No. 4 Florida (11-1, 7-1). Georgia won its head-to-head against Florida for the tie-breaker, however (in case anyone's forgotten).  Once again, though each of the three teams leading the SEC in standings are all tied, the provision of an extra game will provide one team with an extra loss and another with essentially a bye into the bowl season.  With each of the three teams ranked in the top 4, the winner of the SEC championship game will go on to the National Championship while the loser will be jumped by Florida to secure a No. 3 ranking and a Sugar Bowl appearance.  Going down the current BCS standings will show how the rest of the SEC is being snubbed out of BCS bowls by lower ranked non-SEC teams.  No 7. LSU (who will likely finish No. 6 over the Alabama-Georgia loser), No. 9 Texas A&M, who may also make a move, No. 12 South Carolina, who should finish at No. 10, add up to four top ten teams who will not appear in BCS bowls.  It's about time we redefine "fair" and just let the SEC take over.

All things considered, the final BCS Bowls should look something like this (BCS rankings are also projected):

Tampa Bay v. Atlanta

by John Michael

Playoffs?! You kidding me?

Statement Game. This is it. This is the game the Bucs have been waiting for. After starting 1-3, the Bucs have fought back to 6-4, winning four straight while putting on the best offensive show in franchise history. The Bucs' newfound swagger has caught the eye of even more experts and analysts across the nation, some even using the "p-word" when discussing Tampa Bay's post-season. But despite the recent success, the Bucs have yet to claim that signature win to prove that they truly belong among the top teams in the league this year. This week's game provides that opportunity.

Head coach Steve Martin Mike Smith applauding his Falcon's effort

Into town this week comes the Dirty Birds. The Dixie Chicks. The current number one seed in the NFC, and huge division rivals. The Atlanta Falcons. This is the first meeting of two between these two teams, and a matchup that many in the Bay Area have been looking forward to for weeks. The Matt Ryan-led Atlanta Falcons have clawed their way to an impressive 9-1 record, their only blemish coming against a resurgent New Orleans Saints team. While most point out that the games the Falcons have won were very close, and that they're fortunate to only have one loss, the fact remains that the Falcons have found a way to win those close games. Their record has been well deserved. But these close games can easily spin out of the Falcons' favor in a hurry, which is what the Bucs are aiming for today. A Buccaneers win would be huge not only for the franchise, but for the NFC playoff picture as a whole. The Bucs would stay right in the mix for a wildcard spot, while the Falcons would fall to only having a two game lead over the Bucs with five games (and one against the Bucs) to go. And with the 49ers breathing down the Falcons' necks for that number one spot, anything could happen to the Falcons under pressure.

But all of these possibilities start on the field at Raymond James Stadium today. Should the Bucs lose, the playoffs might be just out of reach. This statement game is as close to must-win game as it gets for Tampa Bay. Here's how they win.


Keys to Victory


Doug Martin. One of the weakest spots of the Atlanta Falcons is their run defense, which ranks 26th in the league allowing 130.5 yards per game. Martin had better be ready to play. The biggest offensive days for the Bucs lately have depended on establishing a strong running game early. Pulling off the upset on the Falcons will be a lot easier if Martin can get rolling early. On paper, Martin looks to have a great day on the ground. On the field? We'll see at 1 PM.

Here they come.

Limit Matt Ryan. Much like the Bucs, the Falcons have been thriving because of their offense. While their running game (28th in the league in rushing yards) leaves much to be desired, and should not be much of a factor against the Bucs' top ranked rushing defense, Atlanta's passing game is ranked fourth in the league. The Bucs' 32nd ranked passing defense may be in for a long day against the tandem of Matt Ryan and his top receivers, Roddy White and Julio Jones. Because of the Falcon's lack of a consistent running game, Ryan will without a doubt be targeting these two deep in the Bucs' secondary early and often. The key is to bend but not break, and create turnovers. Last week, the Falcons were fortunate enough to gain a victory against the Chiefs despite Ryan throwing a career high 5 interceptions. Should the Bucs have similar success in the turnover department, they need to capitalize.

Looking more like 2010 every week.

Josh Freeman. Last week was not one of Josh Freeman's greatest games. Freeman threw for two picks at very inopportune times, and the the Bucs' trailed by 11 with about six minutes left in the game. But this is when Josh Freeman emerged as a leader of this young Buccaneers offense. In the final six minutes, Freeman was almost perfect, throwing the game-tying touchdown and two point conversion in the final seconds, capping it off with a phenomenal strike to Dallas Clark to clinch the road victory in overtime. The Bucs need Freeman to be that leader against the Falcons. Should the Bucs fall behind early, Freeman must put on an even more impressive performance than last week. He must make the right decisions and keep the ball out of the hands of Atlanta defenders, and Matt Ryan off the field. It will be up to Freeman if it comes down to the fourth quarter again, which is where Atlanta thrives.

If the Buccaneers pull out a victory today, it will send shock waves across the NFL. The Bucs will finally prove they belong and are a force to be reckoned with in the NFC South. The Bucs are quietly dangerous, and a game like this will finally get the attention of every team left on their schedule. Atlanta will keep it close as they have with every team this year, but I believe that the Bucs will have what it takes to pull off the upset in the final quarter. Then, the pressure is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from here until the end.

John Michael's prediction:

Tampa Bay wins 27 -24

Florida v. Florida State

by Arnaldo

The State of Florida. The proverbial breeding ground for some of the best football in the country. Winning the state of Florida means a lot, and ever since the early '90s, it's been between Florida and Florida State. Each team typically ranked in the top 10 and chasing the opportunity to play for a National Championship. While the last few years have been lackluster, it's certainly back this year. Both teams are 10-1 as Florida is ranked at No. 4 and Florida State at No. 10. And similar to the '90s, each team stands in the others chance for a national title. For Florida State, a win over a BCS No. 4 team would definitely propel them into voter consideration but would need lots of help. Top ranked Notre Dame would need to lose at the hands of Southern California and some more movement in the top 10 would be necessary. For Florida at No. 4, it's a bit simpler. No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Georiga are facing each other at the SEC Championship so one will lose. The victor, assuming a victory at their season closer (Auburn and Georgia Tech, respectively) would assure themselves a spot in Miami for the title game against Notre Dame. If USC beats the Irish, however, which they have 9 out of the last 10 years, and Florida beats Florida State, Florida would move to No. 2 once again and play the SEC champion in a 2011 repeat all-SEC National Championship.

"... Quack?"

It seems bizarre that Florida is even in contention for a National Championship, who can't seem to find a way to move the ball since the LSU game. We're here because then No. 1 Kansas State lost handily to unranked Baylor while No. 2 Oregon simultaneously went down to Stanford in overtime. In reality, Florida might be one of the lesser deserving one-loss teams for a shot at the title. The Gators struggle moving the ball in the air and recently, also on the ground. What started as a very physical, very effective run first, play-action pass offense is now just desperate to move the chains.

Please lose....

A few weeks ago I had said I would rather Georgia go to the SEC Championship game against then-undefeated Alabama and have Florida spared from an extra loss to end up in a better bowl game, namely the Sugar Bowl.  I would have preferred this to any "shot" at an SEC title.  Things are a little different now and my philosophy has changed.  I would much rather go to a National Championship and lose than go to a Sugar Bowl and win.  It's the one time when the loser still gets some credit. Making it that far is a serious statement for a second year head coach like Will Muschamp, brought in to fill in huge shoes and restore Florida to its former elite status.


The Match-up




If you live in the state of Florida, hell, if you've heard of the state of Florida, you know how serious this game is. You're probably also aware that after going on a six game winning streak, the Seminoles are now streaking, having won the last two games.  Last year's was particularly messy.  No fan was proud to call themselves a Floridian.  It was the first time neither team was ranked coming into the game since 1986 and neither offense could produce.  The game eventually went to the team who turned the ball over less, and that was Florida State, who picked off John Brantley three times for four total turnovers and won 21-7 despite producing over 100 yards less than Florida.  This year may be a similar scenario, but with both teams in the top ten.  In order for the Gators to win, they need to go back to basics.  There's no reinventing this offense anymore; it's the last game of the season.  Instead it's time to play to our strengths, the strengths that got us here: run the ball consistently, play good defense, create turnovers, solid field position.

Jeff Driskel - He will play!  A lot of Gator fans were nervous when Driskel limped off the field two weeks ago against Louisiana-Lafayette, and scared when he didn't return against Jacksonville State.  He's 100% cleared and Muschamp claims he showed no limitations at practice.  Like I said, it's time to go back to basics.  The type of game play that got us victories against Texas A&M, LSU, and South Carolina.  Jeff Driskel doesn't need to pass the ball 30 times to win, but he needs to throw it enough to keep the defense honest.  When he doesn't make enough completions, defenses focus on our running attack and shut it down well enough.  A decent (not great) passing game and some occasional explosive plays (something the Gators have been lacking) will keep FSU on their heels, away from the line of scrimmage, where Mike Gillislee will find some running lanes.  Driskel just has to be smart with the ball, and do what he does best, extend plays with his arm and feet.

Defense - This game will mark the most impressive display of defense since the LSU game, so they say.  I'm not so sure.  While both rank in the nation's top five in defense, one really has to examine the level of competition.  Florida State has played one ranked team all season, then No. 10 Clemson.  The rest has been the weaker than usual ACC rift-raft.  The Gators have played four (five, considering Texas A&M was very prematurely unranked at the time) most of which have seen time in the top 10.  To me, the fact remains that the Seminole defense is severely less tested than the Gators' and it will show on Saturday.


Turnovers - Last year was really a battle for turnovers and Florida's four is what really sealed the game for the Seminoles.  A team like Florida thrives off turnovers, having been reluctant to really produce on offense alone.  This year, the Gators seem to have the edge at +13 against the Seminole's -2.  This is good considering the Seminoles have the edge on producing total yards.



E.J. Manuel - Has become the true leader of this team, trying to fill in big shoes left by Vikings starter Christian Ponder.  He's 23-5 in his second year and has already thrown for 2,785 yards, 21 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions.  Last year, however, the Gators defense held him to only 6 completions and 65 yards.  A similar shut down will almost guarantee a victory for the Gators if they can avoid the 4 turnovers that did us in.




Free Gilly - This season was marked for Mike Gillislee, and his (more realistic) goal of breaking 1000 yards is within reach, only 36 yards short.  A very reasonable task.  Really, in order to win, the Gators need to break down the Seminole defense by running the ball physically, similar to how they defeated the LSU and South Caroline defenses.  The o-line needs to toughen up, and hold their blocks for Gillislee to pound through.  Hope that Twitter explodes this Saturday with #FreeGilly everywhere.


Kick the Ball - In a defensive battle as we've seen time and time again this season, punting and kicking field goals are critical.  Leave it in the hands of Caleb Sturgis and Kyle Christy to continue their outstanding performances in order to win.  Also keep in mind, however, that while Sturgis is a Lou Groza Award finalist, so is FSU's Dustin Hopkins.


Arnaldo's prediction: 

Florida wins 24-17

Tampa Bay v. Carolina

by John Michael

Round Two. The Buccaneers played Carolina in Week One for what was then a surprising 16-10 win. Going into that game, expectations were low for the Buccaneers. The roster was one of the youngest in the league, after coming off a 4-12 season and starting fresh with a new Head Coach under Greg Schiano. All the questions focused on the upcoming season for the Bucs - How would they respond the the new regime put in place by Schiano? Is Josh Freeman really the answer for the Bucs at Quarterback? How would the big free-agent signings play out in Tampa Bay?

It's been tough not typing "Scam Newton" this whole time.

Meanwhile, the Panthers were coming off a year where their offensive power improved dramatically. In 2011, after a 2-14 finish in 2010, the Panthers finished with a 6-10 record behind the number one draft pick Cam Newton. The Panthers had the 7th ranked overall offense behind a powerful 3rd ranked running game under the three-way punch of Newton, Jonathan Dwyer, and DeAngelo Williams. In the last six games, the Panthers went 4-2 - including two wins against the Buccaneers. Needless to say, expectations were high at the start of the season for the 2012 Panthers and Cam Newton's sophomore season.

Fast-forward to Week 11. Going into today's game, the Bucs have one of the league's hottest offenses with Doug Martin's sensational season and Freeman coming into his own. They have won three straight while averaging 35.6 points per game since their bye-week. The last game against the Chargers was probably the most complete game the Bucs played this season, scoring on offense, defense, and (surprise!) special teams. While they have allowed the league worst passing yards per game, the defense has created turnovers in key spots so secure victories late. The Panthers are heading in the opposite direction. The high expectations surrounding Cam Newton heading into the season has translated into only two wins so far. Offensive numbers from last year are down - this year, they are ranked 27th in the league in total yards per game. But don't let the 2-7 record fool you, the Panthers are still a dangerous team. All but two of Carolina's losses were by single digits.


Keys to Victory

Doug E. Fresh. Douginator. Still not as good as Muscle Hamster

Let loose the Douggernaut. Carolina ranks 16th in the league in rush defense, allowing 113 yards per game on the ground. This may be a chance for Doug Martin to shine again. Establishing the run game early on in Carolina will open up the passing game for Josh Freeman later on in the match-up, and take a tremendous amount of time off the clock and away from Cam Newton. Today is shaping up to be another big day for Martin should the Buccaneers depleted Offensive Line hold up against the Carolina's defense.

Keep an eye on Cam. While Cam Newton hasn't been running all over defenses like last year, it doesn't mean that he can't accomplish it this year. The Bucs have the best rushing defense in the league so far, and they did well to contain Newton in Week One. Tampa Bay must contain Newton, forcing him to throw early and make mistakes. If Cam gets rolling early, however, it could be a long day for the Bucs' defense.

Just keep doing your thing, Leonard Johnson.

Turnovers. The Bucs have been playing with fire as of late, allowing large amounts of yards through the air but coming through with key turnovers. At the same time, Josh Freeman has decreased the turnovers on the offensive end. The Bucs need to keep this pace up, because these turnovers are the reason the Bucs have improved to 5-4 this season. Earlier in the season, the inability to create turnovers and finish games is what led to the 1-3 start. Win the turnover battle against Carolina, win the game.

If the Bucs have any desire to make the playoffs, it's games like today that the Bucs have to win. The schedule doesn't get much easier through the rest of the season, with games against the Broncos, Saints, and two against the Falcons coming up. With the Bucs trending up lately, and the under-perfoming of Carolina, I see much of the same for both teams in this match up. The Bucs continue to score points, and Carolina keeps it close until the end.

John Michael's prediction:

Tampa Bay wins 35 - 24

Florida v. Jacksonville State

by Arnaldo

Identity crisis.  The Gators have one, and at the worst possible time.  Playing down to their opponent last week, Florida escaped the upset in a nail-biter... against non-BCS Louisiana-Lafayette.  A loss would've destroyed the season.  It would've been the first loss to a non-BCS team since 1988 against Memphis State (what we would considered non-BCS since the BCS wasn't formed until 1998).  At the height of the Florida season the identity was clear: run the ball, play good defense.  It's a philosophy that's not circumstantial.  Will Muschamp likes it and is likely to keep implementing it throughout his tenure.  But the product on the field today can't find the first down marker.  A quarterback who still hasn't gotten comfortable in the pocket.  Receivers who can't shake off defenders to get open, and seem to always be in the wrong place at the wrong time.  A running back who made it on everyone's radars early and has subsequently been shut down.  A rattled and tired offensive line.

"IT'S THE RAGIN' CAJUNS!"

There's no magic cure at this point.  These are the cards we're dealt.  But a lot can be cleaned up.  Florida has shown what kind of team it can be.  That Texas A&M squad that dethroned No. 1 Alabama last week, was first beaten by Florida.  That powerful LSU rushing attack was held to 42 yards by Florida, while we ran the ball the last 17 of 18 plays to score twice.  Steve Spurrier's 9th ranked Gamecocks watched as we stole the ball four times to rack up 44 points.  Don't forget that the Gators can play.  The focus of this week should be execution, drive, and a way out of this rut.


The Match-up


It's pretty one sided.  I'm aware that I said the same thing about Missouri, only to later admit that they're a formidable SEC foe.  I'm aware that the following week I predicted a huge rout against Louisiana-Lafayette, calling it a cupcake match.  Admittedly, I am not wrong and the Gators' performance was an embarrassment.  However, Jacksonville State is an FCS team (Divison 1-AA).  It won't be impossible to lose, but it's incredibly unlikely.


Jacoby Brissett - It's official: Jeff Driskel will not play on Saturday.  Driskel sprained his right ankle last week on a short run in the third quarter while the Gators still led 13-10.  Brissett took over on a shaky start.  His first four throws included a near interception and two sacks, but he improved on the game-tying drive where he went three for three for 48 yards and a touchdown.  Will Muschamp's philosophy is "man down, man up" and it's no different at the quarterback position.  Both Will Muschamp and Brent Pease are very confident in Brissett's ability and don't look to change much for him at the helm.  “I still think we stay within our philosophy,’’ Pease said. “I think we’ve got a pretty good recipe. Is it totally what you want it to be in the big picture? No, there’s things we’ve got to improve on. There are pieces you can put in. I’m glad we’ve got two good [quarterbacks], three good ones."  Keep in mind that Driskel and Brissett's skillset vary but their talents are similar.  It wasn't until the end of the first game when a starter was chosen.  As high school prospects, Driskel was ranked the no. 1 quarterback while Brissett was close behind at no. 3.  Expect Brissett to lead the offense well while Driskel recovers for Florida State. 


Execution - A game like this one should be used to perfect the little things.  Route timing, ball exchanges, proper tackling, generally speaking: execution.  The Gators did not execute well against the Ragin' Cajuns.  Ten penalties for 79 yards almost sounds moderate for Florida, but they were costly and as always, completely unnecessary.  These included a Lerente McCray offsides on a third down that prevented a ULL punt and a Loucheiz Purifoy pass interference on another third down to grant the Ragin' Cajuns their touchdown drive.  Mental errors like Clay Burton's dropped end zone pass or Mike Gillislee's continued inability to break 80 yards rushing for the fifth consecutive game also require execution improvement.  If the Gators can't execute against the Jacksonville State Gamecocks this Saturday, executing against Florida State will be a nightmare. 

Marques Ivory (12)

Gamecocks - Sit back and prepare yourselves for a second round of inappropriate Gamecock jokes.  Jacksonville State University is located in Jacksonville, Alabama (in case you were mistaking them for JU down the road).  A small public institution that fields a middle-of-the-pack 6-4 Ohio Valley Conference FCS football team.  The Gamecocks do know how to move the ball.  They average 430.9 yards per game.  Quarterback Marques Ivory and receiver Allan Bonner shared a five-touchdown game earlier this season.  Keep in mind, however, this is against other FCS opponents.  Their only other FBS match-up this season was against Arkansas in a 49-24 loss, the very same Arkansas who is third to last in the SEC.


Receivers - Jordan Reed can't do it all.  Week in and week out, we expect somebody to stand out of this corps only to be let down.  Andre Debose might still be nursing a hyperextended knee and Soloman Patton's broken arm isn't healing any time soon.  Brissett will be looking for the same targets.  Seniors Frankie Hammond Jr and Omarius Hines have all the motivation in the world to go out strong in their last home game, while true freshmen Latroy Pittman and Raphael Andrades may have a lot to prove looking towards the future.


Senior Night - This Saturday marks the home closer at Florida Field for seniors to be recognized.  The names you've heard for the last four years, Xavier Nixon, Josh Evans, Jon Bostic, Nick Alajajian, Mike Gillislee, Omar Hunter, Lerente McCray, Omarius Hines, Frankie Hammond Jr., and Caleb Sturgis, among those you haven't, will all be delivering flowers to their parents and receiving their final ovations as Gators before the game.


Looking Ahead - It's no secret.  Florida State means A LOT to this team.  Jacksonville State is the last hurdle and real-game experience time for the Gators to work on the aforementioned execution woes.  A win against both teams would leave the Gators 11-1, tied for the best record in the SEC, and a sure lock at a BCS bowl game.  Not too shabby a second season for Will Mushcamp.  What lies between: execution.


Arnaldo's prediction:

Florida wins 45 - 6

Tampa Bay v. San Diego

by John Michael

Trending up. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit it big as of late, winning three of their last four while averaging 36 points during that span. The offense has been on fire, becoming one of the most – if not the most – productive offenses in franchise history. The catalyst of this offense during this span has without a doubt been Doug Martin. Since his breakout game in Minnesota, Martin has taken the league by storm. In the last game against Oakland, Martin scored four touchdowns and shattered the franchise record for single game rushing yards.  

But while the Bucs are trending up, the San Diego Chargers enter this game moving backwards. After starting the season with a solid 3-1 record, San Diego has lost three of their last four to end up with the same record as the Bucs at 4-4. Their offense ranks in the lower half of the league in both passing and rushing yards on offense at 22^nd and 20^th, respectively. The Chargers are also suffering from injuries, with three key starters who are questionable for the game. Jared Gaither, one of the top blockers in the league on the offensive line, was held out of practice last week alongside defenders Corey Liuget and Demorrio Williams. Phillip Rivers, the Chargers quarterback, has also been underperforming the past few weeks, but should be ready to attempt a lot of passes against a Buccaneers secondary that is ranked dead last in the league in passing yards allowed.

Keys to Victory

Run Dougie Run. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Until defenses can prove that they can stop Doug Martin, there is no reason to try and slow him down. The Chargers run defense is tough, ranking 4^th in the league in rushing yards allowed, but Martin has proven that he can overcome tough challenges in the run game. Last week, many questioned whether or not he could perform well with the loss of Carl Nicks, but Martin proved he could. Let Doug loose until the Chargers can show that they can stop him

Bunker down in the secondary. The passes are coming today. Phillip Rivers saw last weeks performance that saw Carson Palmer gain 414 yards in the air against the Buccaneers and will be looking to replicate it. The Bucs secondary is also weak right now, with Eric Wright dealing with an Achilles injury. The secondary may not be able to stop the pass, but should look for mistakes by Rivers and create turnovers.

Josh Freeman. This may be the game where Josh has to step up big time. If Rivers can attack the secondary with positive results, the defense may be in for a long day. And with a highly ranked run defense, Martin could be slowed down. Keeping up with the Chargers may rest solely on the arm of Freeman and his ability to target Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams. This wide receiving tandem has proven that it can be successful so far this season, but we may see how they perform when under pressure to keep up.

The Buccaneers should aim to keep rolling they way they have the past few weeks. But the Chargers are desperate for a win. It is possible, with how the Buccaneers secondary is shaped right now, that this game could turn into a shootout. If the Bucs can obtain an early lead, they should be able to hold off the Chargers attack to secure a victory.

John Michael’s Prediction:

 

Tampa Bay wins 38-31

Florida v. Louisiana-Lafayette

by Arnaldo

Cupcake: the team you pay to balance the schedule.  The team you should have no problem beating.  They're as soft as a cupcake.  As I've mentioned before, there's always a balance in schedules to tiptoe the line between having a favorable schedule and impressing the BCS voters with quality opponents.  Your conference will do the bulk of your schedule for you, but that still leaves four weeks of out of conference teams to schedule.  Florida enjoys its season-ending rivalry with Florida State, which leaves three open weeks.  In weaker conferences, teams must schedule more talented opponents to counteract their weak schedule, while SEC teams can schedule any FBS or FCS team it desires and no voter will look down on it.

Louisiana-Lafayette is 5-3 overall and 3-2 in the Sun Belt Conference.  They lead an efficient pass attack with QB Terrence Broadway who just came off a 373 passing, 87 yard rushing performance against Louisiana-Monroe, winning 40-24.  Don't be impressed however, the best defense the Ragin' Cajuns have faced this year has been Oklahoma State, who has the 56th overall best scoring defense.  Florida has the 3rd. 

The Match-up


Passing the ball - The Gators went out against Missouri with all the intentions of establishing a passing game.  When that veered them south, Muschamp had to rely on Gillislee and the run game to move the chains, but with three-fifths of the starting offensive line at least partially hurt or missing, and against a surprisingly tough Mizzou defense, it became easier said than done.  The Gators were shut out in the first half and barely broke a hundred yards passing the whole game.  Driskel needs to improve and receivers need to make plays, nothing's changed, but now is the time to improve two weeks away from a trip to Tallahassee.

Health - A major factor in the close game against Mizzou were injuries.  Matt Elam, Mack Brown, Andre Dubose, James Wilson, Xavier Nixon, Lerente McCray, Jonathan Halapio, and Caleb Sturgis all left the game injured.  Luckily, all are expected to return except for back-up running back Mack Brown.  Fellow back-up to Mike Gillislee, Matt Jones will be splitting his carries and has already done a great job throughout the season.  Expect less than normal playtime for a lot of these stars to ensure a full recovery for FSU, with the obvious exception of kicker Caleb Sturgis, who was sorely missed last Saturday as Brad Phillips missed two critical field goals.

Return practice - The Gators' special teams is starting to gain national recognition as one of the best.  This being said, Florida has yet to return a single punt or kickoff for a touchdown this season, something that has been missing since the Brandon James returns of the Urban Meyer era.  With Andre Dubose returning, but perhaps not 100% this week, it's time for him, Omarius Hines, and De'Ante Saunders to at least work on gaining substantial yardage on returns.  We all know how valuable field position is in the SEC (especially with a less-than-phenomenal offense) and the returns don't exactly match Kyle Christy's punts.

Secondary - Louisiana-Lafayette is a pass-oriented team and last week, we all learned how pass-oriented teams fare against the Gators.  Mizzou QB James Franklin threw four interceptions last week in a stunning display of defense from the secondary.  Expect big performances from Matt Elam, Jaylen Watkins, and Loucheiz Purifoy to accompany a healthier defensive line with the return of Lerente McCray and fully recovered Sharrif Floyd (SEC co-defensive lineman of the week) and Dominique Easley.


Homecoming in the Swamp - Even numbered years always just kinda fizzle out in Gainesville.  These are the years when we play FSU at Tallahassee, typically ending the season at home with an FCS opponent.  Last week's attendance claims to have been a few hundred under capacity (90,496) but anyone at the game, or even watching at home, could tell you it was not the Swamp.  The bubble-bursting loss to Georgia has taken a lot from the Gator faithful but the time for mourning has passed.  It's homecoming in Gainesville this weekend and the Swamp should be actually full, even for a 12:21 p.m. kickoff and regional SEC Network coverage with alumni ready to cheer on the Gators.  Let's pretend we're playing LSU again, tailgate early, stay late, and revamp the Swamp.

Arnaldo's prediction:

Florida 40 - Louisiana-Lafayette 3

Tampa Bay v. Oakland

 

by John Michael

January 26th, 2003. The greatest day in the history of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Playing in their first and only Super Bowl to date (They should have been there in 1999, but it's okay. I'm not bitter.), the Buccaneers would go on to beat the Oakland Raiders 48-21 and hoist the Lombardi Trophy as World Champions. However, that date almost 10 years ago is the last time the Buccaneers have beat the Raiders, going 0-2 against Oakland since. Including Super Bowl XXXVII, the Buccaneers have a 2-6 all time record against the Raiders, without a single win in the Raiders' home stadium.

Obligatory John Gruden Super Bowl Picture.

But the past is the past, and today is today. Tampa Bay rolls into Oakland after a huge road win against Minnesota, led with performances by Doug Martin and Josh Freeman that has the rest of the nation taking note of what is happening in Tampa. Martin was named the Offensive Rookie of the Month for October, leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage with an average of 155.7 yards per game. In the last three games, Freeman has been on fire - He has thrown for nine touchdowns and only one interception, averaging over 300 yards through the air. The offense appears to finally be clicking with Tampa Bay.

Oakland enters this game with the same record as the Buccaneers, riding on a two game winning streak. Those two wins, however, have come against the two teams that most regard as the worst teams in the NFL this year, Kansas City and Jacksonville. But don't let that trick you into thinking that Oakland is a pushover. Their other win came against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and they kept things close to the end with the 7-0 Atlanta Falcons. They have the tenth ranked passing offense led by quarterback Carson Palmer, who has thrown for over 1900 yards this season with 9 touchdowns. His favorite target is Denarius Moore, who has caught four of Palmer's touchdowns. The running game is led by former Arkansas running back Darren McFadden, who rushed over 100 yards in the Raiders' last game against the Chiefs. Oakland has notoriously been a difficult place to play for opposing teams, with members of the "Black Hole" creating one of the most intimidating home-field advantages in the league. Here's what the Bucs have to do to leave Oakland with a victory for the first time in franchise history.

Keys to Victory

Get well soon. Please.

Win in the Trenches. The Buccaneers received some of the worst news it could hear this week besides there being a sale on Adderall. Carl Nicks, one of Tampa Bay's big free agent signings last offseason, was placed on injured reserve with a toe injury. Nicks has been an enormous part of the recent surge in the Buccaneers offense, giving a strength to the Offensive line that the Bucs have rarely seen in recent years. Behind Nicks, Martin has been able to exploit the large holes he creates and Freeman has had more time in the pocket. The loss of Nicks could punch a large hole in the the Bucs' recent consistency if his replacements cannot contain the Raiders' Defensive line. Luckily for the Bucs, the extended week has given them some more time to prepare the additions to the line. In place of Nicks, Jeremy Zuttah will play left guard, and Ted Larsen will start at center.

Contain Darren McFadden. This should not be too difficult for the Bucs to do, as Oakland's rushing attack ranks 30th in the league and Tampa Bay's rushing defense ranks 6th. But McFadden on a good day can cruise through even the best defenses, so it is important for the Bucs to respect McFadden as a potential threat. McFadden was able to rush for over 100 yards in his last game and will look to improve this week, and Oakland will probably seek McFadden out on the field many times. It is no coincidence that the last 5 games McFadden has rushed over 100 yards in have resulted in Oakland wins.

Even Carson Palmer is surprised by Carson Palmer's recent success.

Prepare for the Pass. Carson Palmer has without a doubt noticed that the Buccaneers' passing defense ranks 30th in the league in his preparations this week, so the Bucs will need to be prepared for the air attack. With Aquib Talib "focusing" his efforts in New England now, and Eric Wright playing through a small injury (and possibly facing the same suspension Talib faced), the Bucs are vulnerable at the cornerback position. Should Demarius Moore or Darius Heyward-Bay get loose in the secondary, it could bode a long day for the Buccaneer's defense. However, the return of Da'Quan Bowers could help the passing attack get to Palmer quick and cause mistakes. While Bowers hasn't returned to "every-down" form, the coaching staff has agreed that he will see more playing time today than he saw against Minnesota.

If the Buccaneers win today, it will be the first time the Bucs have had back-to-back road wins since late 2010. With the consistency that Josh Freeman and the Buccaneers offense has shown in the past three games, things are looking well for the Bucs to accomplish that feat. It will be difficult to adjust to the loss of Carl Nicks, but with Jeremy Zuttah, who has started 31 games at left guard, as his replacement, the offensive line should perform well enough for Freeman and Doug Martin to continue their hot streak. The Bucs enter this game a more complete team than the Oakland Raiders, and I believe that they continue to build off of their success seen against Minnesota to improve to a 4-4 record.

John Michael's Prediction:

Tampa Bay wins 31 - 21

Florida v. Missouri

by Arnaldo

Mistakes were made.  It happens, but these mistakes obviously took quite a toll on Florida's nearly perfect regular season, a feat that's only been accomplished once by the '09 team.  It let out the air from under Gator fans everywhere as they stay in their homes and dorms this weekend in shame; the Mizzou game has not sold out.  I hate losing to Georgia.  I'd rather lose every game and beat Georgia than win every game while losing to Georgia, but it's time to gain some perspective.  The Gators are ranked No. 7 in the BCS after the loss.  The expectations for this season were similar to the last.  Third or fouth in the East was what I kept hearing, another struggle to make a bowl game.  Florida has been the surprise of the college football season and absolutely nothing has been negated. 

Believe it or not, the Gators are still on the inside track to a Sugar Bowl, same as last week.  Had we beaten the Bulldogs, we would have clinched the SEC East and faced a probable Alabama for a probable loss and a Sugar Bowl bid.  As long as Georgia wins out in the SEC (they have 5-3 Ole Miss and 1-7 Auburn remaining) they'll represent the East instead of us in the game where they will most definitely lose to the same probable Alabama.  That leaves Florida as the highest ranked available SEC team for the Sugar Bowl committee to chose.  All we really have to do is beat Florida State, and from what I saw in Jacksonville, it's all in the Gators' hands.

I say this because, I truthfully believe Florida is a better team than Georgia.  I'm not a sore loser, I promise.  The game was uncharacteristic for the Gators from the beginning to end.  Will Muschamp said that the margin of error was very slim for them, considering their schedule.  It took a mistake free game to beat LSU, it took half a dozen mistakes to lose to Georgia.  The Dawgs earned their 17 points (just as I predicted).  They went 1-10 on third downs, had 14 penalties for 132 yards, and three turnovers, which has been very characteristic for them.  The Gators lost this game for themselves.  Six turnovers, for a team that was plus-11 in their turnover margin, and they still won the time of possession battle, and ended the game one very unlucky play from tying.  These stats have victory in a rematch written all over them, but of course, the Gators and the Dawgs won't see each other again.  Instead, the Gators need to focus on the road ahead, which like I said, is still very favorable.  The season is far from over.

Recover.  The past is the past, and the Gators have three weeks of easy match-ups before facing Florida State.  Coming off a loss is never easy, especially a self-inflicted one.  It's time to forget the Cocktail Party, and work on recovery, both physically and psychologically.


The Match-Up

Ball security - It's the obvious subplot here.  The Gators must return to mistake-free form if they're to salvage their season and crawl back into elite status.  Two fumbles in the first three plays against Georgia is not acceptable.  The lack of momentum created from these turnovers was fatal.  Securing the football will come from everyone: Jeff Driskel, obviously, but also the offensive line that continues to not provide him with enough pocket time.  Don't let Mizzou's rough SEC record fool you.  The Tigers lead the nation in forced fumbles with 17.  After last week, that's a terrifying statistic.


Finalizing the playbook - The curse of a run-first offense is predictability.  You sacrifice variety for consistent production.  As the season wears on, play-callers develop tunnel vision and the more creative, less practiced plays, become harder to execute when they're needed.  At this point in the season, it's time to implement the final tweaks in style.  Look for the Gators to try what they tried against Vanderbilt, but only hopefully more successfully: spread the receivers, mix up the calls, and try some deep play-action.


Jeff Driskel and Jordan Reed - These two need pick-me-ups.  Driskel had a hand in the majority of the turnovers last week, while Reed was partially responsible for the game-loser.  As underclassmen, both are too easily influenced and need good performances to get them back on top of their game by Florida State.  Now's the time to get them back into rhythm for the last third of the season.


Defense - As usual, the stellar defense can't let down.  We've gotten where we are because they haven't.  The second best SEC defense in points allowed (fourth in the nation) must rely on their depth this week as Lerente McCray might not see a full game with an aggravated ankle and Leon Orr out with flu-like symptoms.  The trio of true freshmen who have seen plenty of play time and have thoroughly impressed Muschamp, and the Gator Nation for that matter, DE Dante Fowler Jr., LB Antonio Morrison, and DT Jonathan Bullard will be taking bigger roles to improve overall health on defense over the next few weeks.


Replacing Patton - Solomon Patton left the Georgia game with a broken arm and is definitely out for the season (in case you were wondering).  Though he's not used much, he does serve one very important role: the Solomon Patton jet sweep.  It's been the go-to fourth down play this season for good reason, though it had been getting a bit predictable, even Brent Pease admits it.  This play also spreads the defense, or takes advantage of a tightened up defense.  By running Mike Gillislee on the inside so much, defenses start to creep in and load the inside of the box, deep within the hash marks.  The jet sweep gets the ball-carrier out on the edges very quickly, which will spread the defense back out for the following play.  Likely candidates to fill Patton's void are Andre Dubose, who hasn't seen but four touches all year on offense, or Omarius Hines, who doesn't have the speed but makes up for it with strength.


Mizzou talent - Players to watch on the Mizzou squad include QB James Franklin, returner Marcus Murphy, and DT Sheldon Richardson.  Franklin's played about half the season due to injuries, and has only thrown a combined 18 passes in the last three games.  He can be explosive, however, having racked up 3,847 all-purpose yards last year.  Return man Marcus Murphy leads the nation in touchdown returns at four, including one kick-off return against Alabama.  Murphy may be the most talented return specialist the Gators special teams have seen.  Defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson leads the team in tackles (57) and sacks (4).  It's pretty uncommon for interior linemen to lead the team in these categories, which should tell you a couple things: Richardson is fast and can cover the entire line of scrimmage, is great against interior running, and has the strength to penetrate the offensive line for a sack.


Arnaldo's Prediction:

Florida wins 31-10